都市複雜空間系統自我組織臨界性之初探

Self-organized Criticality in Urban Complex Spatial Systems

本研究假設都市空間中的土地使用變遷主要為空間單元與周圍相鄰單元開發決策互動的結果；並視都市為一複雜空間系統，且空間決策者具有限理性（bounded rationality），藉由二維細胞自動體（Cellular automata）進行土地使用變遷的電腦模擬。實驗設計中將都市每一宗土地視為一細胞（cell），其土地使用型態的轉變是依據周遭的狀況從一組開發決策篩選進行。開發決策則由問卷方式取得，作為模擬實驗中開發決策庫建立的基礎。經由實驗結果顯示，系統中相同使用類別（如住宅使用）的宗地聚集規模與頻率呈現出冪次法則（power law）的自我組織（self-organization）現象。

The research is grounded on the hypothesis that land use change in urban space is affected by the interaction of development decisions in local, surrounding land. We consider cities as complex spatial systems; assume spatial decision makers' behaviors are a manifestation of bounded rationality; and through two dimensional cellular automata proceed computer simulations on land use change. In the simulations, the research considers each parcel of land in a city as a cell in which the transformation of land use type is determined by its neighboring cells according to a set of development decision rules. The development decision rules are collected through a questionnaire survey to form a development decision rules database for the computer experiments. The result of the experiments indicates that clusters of parcels of land in the spatial complex systems, given a particular type of land use, tend to self-organize into a power law, or self-organized criticality.