攝護腺癌風險因子研究及商業保單設計與評價

Risk Factors of Prostate Cancer and Valuation onthe Commercial Prostate Cancer Insurance

隨著人口高齡化和飲食不均衡導致罹患攝護腺癌的人數逐年增加，故我們將設計一張商業保單，以因應社會大眾因罹患攝護腺癌所需負擔大筆醫療費用的之保險需求。本研究依據全民健康保險資料庫1996年至2012年共17年40餘萬人的投保人資料作數據分析，透過實證模型找出罹患攝護腺癌的風險因子。實證模型利用二元Probit Model和Logit Model估計出罹患攝護腺癌的機率，以及利用工具變數處理內生變數的問題。藉由模型估計出來的機率和保費折現公式，計算出各情境下保戶所需付出的合理保費。

As aging population and unbalanced diet lead to more patients of prostate cancer, we design a commercial insurance to satisfyinsurance demand of medical expenses. Our research data provided by National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD)have 400,000 people from 1996 to 2012, and find risk factors of prostate cancer fromour model. We estimate probability of suffering prostate cancer by binary model: probit model, logit model, and deal with endogenous variable by instrumental variable. We can calculate reasonable premium under eachsituation by probability and discountedformula.