住戶形成與家戶形成之聯結－－分析性模式

A Model to Joint Household Formation with Family Formation

「住宅」（housing）是許多事物混合的集合名詞，它不只包含四面牆及一屋頂，同時占有一特定區位、特定的鄰里組合與家庭關係。在如此種之多特性眾合一起的情形下，「住宅」事實上是一複雜的概念系統。本文論述是建立在「人口」（population）、「家庭」（family）、「住宅」分析的基礎下，尋找彼此的接繫機制。主要的目的，是經由失繫聯結（missing-linkage）機制的討論，更加清楚地掌握住宅的特性及發掘住宅問題，藉以釐清部分支離，或片斷不整的理論及概念，進而建立一兼具「解釋性」（explanation）與「預測性」（prediction）的模式。本文首先以「人口模擬」（demographic simulation）方式，利用現有關出生率、死亡率、存活率等資料，推估不同屬性別的婦女穩定人口分配比例，以模擬在人口因素與人口參數設定下家庭型態分配機率及戶長率。另一方面則利用戶長率（household head-hip rate）預測住戶形成數量（household distributed by family type），依機率分配將「住戶形成」轉換成「家戶形成」（family formation）數量。住宅問題的分析與政策的推定，僅從單一方面的「住戶」或「住屋」提出因應策略，實無法真正解決問題。本文認為在概念上，「住宅」不應只是「住屋」本身、更包含了「人」的因素及「家庭」關係，面對台灣地區如此嚴重而複雜的住宅問題，更應兼顧此三者，尋求解決之道。

Housing, a collection of complex characteristics, is composed or not only walls and roofs but also a specific location and a particular family and social relationship. In this situation of collective property, analysis on 'housing' will be a complex concept system. Housing is composed of three components- 'population', 'family', and 'housing' in this paper. The purpose of this paper is to find the missing- linkage among the three disciplines and to form a 'explanation' and 'prediction' model. In this paper, the demographic simulation method is used to estimate the distribution probability of specific female, and then, the amount of family formation, transferred by the distribution household formation, is calculated from the household headship- rate method. Analysis on the issue and policy on housing will not work effectively with strategy either on 'household' or 'house.' Conceptually, housing is the building- block of 'household,' 'house,' and 'family' in this paper. The considerable question of housing in Taiwan, therefore, must be disaggregated with 'house,' 'household,' and 'family.'