住宅價格指數之研究──以台北市為例

Housing Price Index in Taipei

過去由於國內住宅市場的資訊並不流通，以致市場上出現的資訊相當混亂，各種名目的住宅價格其差異未有明確釐清，使得一般人常會對不同的住宅價格產生誤解，而不同的時間、地區及住宅類型，所能獲得的資料也不完整。此外，在分析住宅價格變動時，如何解決因住宅之異質性所造成價格的差異，換言之，如何固定品質對住宅所造成之影響？種種資訊不健全的現象，加上住宅異於其他財貨的特性，致使國內住宅市場的變動過程，長期以來，皆未能有一嚴謹且量化的指標明確表示。而如何透過一套嚴謹的分析方法，運用有限的資料，編製一套足以代表國內房價水準的住宅價格指數，並藉此補全住宅價格時間序列資料缺失情形，則是本研究的主要目的。本文主要利用特徵價格法求得住宅屬性的單位價格，並以標準住宅的方式隨時間表達住宅屬性品質的變動，藉指數公式整合住宅價與量的變動並固定品質，以CPI平減住宅價格使幣值固定。實證結果顯示，裴氏指數較拉氏指數有較高的敏感度，且裴氏隨住宅品質變動加權的做法，適於反映住宅品質變動對住宅價格的影響力。其次觀察住宅價格，77年第一季至78年第四季台北市的實質住宅價格上漲了67.88%，隨後開始下跌，至79年第四季實質下跌了39.09%，近二年住宅價格漲跌互見，處於一個穩定上漲的狀態，平均每年上漲9%～12%。

Collecting the 'real' transaction housing price is the most critical issue of housing price research, and it is also the most difficult part of that research in Taiwan. Much housing price research bias may come from the 'not real' transaction price. In order to correct this bias, we asked the Pacific Rehouse Company to provide their real transaction prices (From 1988 to 1993 Quarterly). Heteroscedasticity housing exist in the market, it resulted from different time, location and housing type. How to fix the housing quality to explain the housing price difference is critical issue. By the hedonic price method with housing characteristics we match the standard housing to set up Standard Housing Price(SHP). Using this SHP with different index formula build our Housing Price Index (HPI). In this empirical study, we found that using the Passches' HPI more sensitivity than Laspeyres' HPI. Passches' HPI can be more easy reflect the housing quality change on housing price. We observed first quarter of 1988 to the 4th quarter of 1989 the real housing price raised 67.8%, then continuously decline to 39.09% in 4th quarter of 1990. The latter two years housing price stable average up to 9% to 12%.