以賣方議價能力衡量台灣房市熱度

An Estimate of the Heat of the Taiwan Housing Market Based on Measuring Sellers' Bargaining Power

與過往文獻常直接以成交量衡量房市熱度不同，本文考慮未成交之潛在交易者，透過搜尋模型評估賣方接受買方議價的機率，並以台灣2001至2015年的資料估算賣方議價能力，據此衡量賣方認知的房市景況。實證結果顯示，儘管2015年房市交易量萎縮，全台與六大都會區賣方認知的房市景況依然呈現熱絡，屋主仍不輕易接受買方出價，市場上可能存在許多有意願交易但無法在價格上達到成交共識的買賣雙方。此外，賣方考慮買方議價的機率與建案銷售比率呈現正向相關，特別是中南部的都會區。本文衡量賣方觀點的市場熱度，可為不動產市場提供另一角度的觀察。

The 'heat' of the real estate market has recently been a major preoccupation in the academic literature (Novy-Marx, 2009). While past studies have often directly used trading volume as a measure of the heat of the housing market, such a practice may ignore potential buyers and sellers because of real estate transactions being characterized by asymmetric information and significant heterogeneity. This paper employs a search model from the viewpoint of the sellers, and then estimates the sellers’ bargaining power that accounts for their optimal bidding strategy. Our empirical results show that the heat of the real estate market and future housing prices are positively correlated. In addition, the sales ratio for new housing is positively correlated with the willingness of sellers to accept counter-offers. This paper may provide another measure of housing market conditions.