建設產業財務績效與風險值：奢侈稅前後比較

Financial Performance and Value at Risk Analysis of the Construction Industry: Before and After the Implementation of the Luxury Tax

選取台灣上市櫃建設公司，以2010年7~12月與2011年7~12月為研究期間，選用麥氏指數探討奢侈稅對48家建設公司財務績效跨期表現，藉由股價風險值得出投資各公司股票每日最大損失情形後，整合財務績效與風險值進行討論。研究發現，奢侈稅實施後，建設公司財務績效退步者佔50%，股價風險值上升者佔87.5%，顯示奢侈稅影響投資人信心大於建設公司本身財務績效退步情形。將績效與風險值分為四個區塊，績效進步風險值下降的建設公司僅4家，績效進步風險值上升的建設公司共20家，績效衰退風險值上升的建設公司共22家，績效衰退風險值下降的建設公司共2家。

This paper investigates the overall performance of 48 listed construction industry companies in the TSE or OTC. We select data from June to December of both 2010 and 2011 to compare results, employ the data envelopment analysis of the Malmquist Index to assess each construction company's financial performance, and calculate the value at risk (VaR) of these companies by using the historical simulation method. This paper demonstrates that, after the implementation of the luxury tax, 50% of construction companies have regressed in financial performance, and 87.5% of construction companies have increased in VaR. This reveals that the positive impact of luxury tax on investor confidence exceeds regression of construction companies' financial performance. We classify the construction companies into four groups: four companies have improved in financial performance and declined in VaR; 20 companies have improved in financial performance and increased in VaR; 22 companies have regressed in financial performance and increased in VaR; and two companies have regressed in financial performance and declined in VaR.