英文摘要 |
Since Taiwan government allows domestic corporations to invest in China, which area soon become the major host country of Taiwan's multinational corporations. Because the sensitive political relationship between Taiwan and China, the potential problems come from the highly dependence of economics and intensive direct investments on China area is a subject worthy concerned. This paper investigates the effect of Taiwan corporations' foreign direct investment (FDI) in China on the cycles of domestic real estate market, and studies the impacts of important non-economic events, such as social and political events, on real estate market. The results suggest that economic variables, except interest rate, all influence ital estate market significantly. During a period with high income, increasing family growth, expected inflation rate and flourishing stock market, real estate market has a better performance. The insignificance of effect of interest rate on ital estate market might because of inadequateness of proxy variable. The EDT in China from Taiwan has a positive effect on the real estate market of home country. This result is contrary to Stevens and Lipsey (1992) and Belderbos (1992) who found a substitutive relation between investment abroad and at home. Of the non-economic events, only the effect of the announcement of ”two countries” from post-president Lee is not significant. The others, such as the China's maneuver, the earthquake on Sep. 21, the terrible attack of 911, the fair apartment priced 60 thousands per 36 square feet, the allowance of farm traded by non-farmer, and the capacity limit of building, all have significant impacts on real estate market. |