觀光旅館住宿需求季節性與客源結構關係之研究

Research on Relationship between Accommodation Demand Seasonality of Tourist Hotels and Customer Structure

旅館業是觀光產業中的核心事業，也是觀光產業發展的重要指標事業。隨著來臺旅客的快速成長，帶動觀光旅館的成長，在追求量的成長之際，如何兼顧年度內量的均衡，維持館觀光旅館住宿市場穩定的發展，是值得關注的議題。季節性是觀光產業的重要特徵，也是影響產業內相關事業經營的最大干擾因素之一。本研究使用結構性時間數列模型分析台灣觀光旅館住宿需求季節性，驗證台灣觀光旅館住宿需求之季節性的動態特性，並以迴歸方法分析住宿需求季節性與客源結構的關係。實證結果發現，七個地區觀光旅館住宿需求皆存在明顯的季節性且屬於隨機性，各地區觀光旅館住宿需求季節因素主要影響的住宿旅客客源不同，顯示各地區旅遊客群結構不同，因此各地區觀光旅館應有不同的策略與方法處理住宿需求季節性問題。面對季節性，觀光旅館業者可以採取價格差異化策略、異業結盟，或與當地政府舉辦活動、會議展覽，廣拓客源以提升旅館住用率。 The hotel industry is a critical business in the tourism industry and important indicator of tourism industry development. Rapid growth of tourists in Taiwan results in an increase of tourist hotels. With the constant growth, how to maintain annual internal balance and stability of the accommodation market of tourist hotels is an important issue. Seasonality is a significant characteristic of the tourism industry and one of the most important factors of related business operations in the industry. By a structural time series model, this study analyzes accommodation demand seasonality of tourist hotels in Taiwan and validates dynamic characteristics of seasonality of accommodation demand of tourist hotels in Taiwan. Through regression analysis, it explores the relationship between accommodation demand seasonality and customer structure. According to empirical results, seasonality of accommodation demand of tourist hotels in seven areas is significant and random. Seasonal factors of accommodation demand of tourist hotels in different areas result in different sources of tourists. Thus, customer structure of tourists in different areas varies. Tourist hotels in different areas should cope with accommodation demand seasonality by different strategies and methods. Regarding seasonality, tourist hotels can adopt a price difference strategy, horizontal alliances or hold activities, conferences and exhibitions with local governments to increase the customers and enhance occupancy rates of hotels.