油價對石油輸出國總產出之影響研究

The Effects of the Oil Price on the Total Output of Oil-Exporting Countries

本研究探討1990年至2017年間油價對石油輸出國總產出（國內生產毛額）之影響，研究對象為2017年日輸出原油120萬桶以上之11個石油輸出大國，其中沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國、奈及利亞、安哥拉、科威特及伊朗為OPEC會員國，而俄羅斯、加拿大、挪威、哈薩克及墨西哥則為非OPEC會員國，其中，沙烏地阿拉伯（Saudi Arabia）為2017年全球第一大石油輸出國。經過嚴謹之實證過程，獲得以下的結論：紐約輕原油價格與伊朗及加拿大GDP具有顯著的雙向因果關係，領先一年正向影響。紐約輕原油價格對其餘9國GDP則具有顯著的單向因果關係，其中對安哥拉、科威特、墨西哥、奈及利亞、挪威、哈薩克、沙烏地阿拉伯及阿拉伯聯合大公國等8國GDP領先ㄧ年正向變動。但與俄羅斯GD PLag 1為正向影響及Lag 2為負向影響，Wald檢定結果未達0.1顯著水準，淨效果不顯著，此表示紐約輕原油價第一年對俄羅斯GDP正向影響的程度，於第二年被負向影響抵銷。 The time span of this study is from 1990 to 2017, for a total of 28 years. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of oil price on the total output (gross domestic product) of oil-exporting countries. This study selects eleven oil-exporting countries with a crude oil exporting of 1.2 million barrels or more in 2017. There are six OPEC members: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Angola, Kuwait and Iran, and five non-OPEC members: Russia, Canada, Norway, Kazakhstan and Mexico. Among them, Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter in 2017. After a rigorous empirical process, this paper obtains the following conclusion: The New York light crude oil price has a significant two-way and one-year positive causal relationship with Iran and Canada's GDP. However, there is a significant one-way causality for the remaining nine countries' GDP. There is a positive change one year ahead in eight countries' GDP including Angola, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Finally, the Wald test of lag 1 and 2 coefficients of Russia's GDP is more than 0.1 significant levels and the net effect is not significant. It indicates that the New York light crude oil price has a positive impact on Russia's GDP in the first year and will be offset by the negative impact in the second year.