韓中自由貿易協定及其對東北亞政經的衝擊

Sino-Korea Free Trade Agreement and its Political and Economic Implications for Northeast Asia

2014年朝鮮半島情勢發生重大變化，其主要原因是中國領導人習近平上臺以來調整外交政策的優先順位。更明確而言，即習近平上臺以來積極推動以構建「新型大國關係」為主軸的對美國外交政策。而在此同時日本安倍（Shinzo Abe）政府則力圖製造美中矛盾，使兩強齟齬，導致G2破局，為日本再度崛起尋求機會。最佳的例證就是2014年7月日本防衛大臣小野寺五典（Itsunori Onodera）在華府的戰略與國際研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies）講話中提及日本是個大國（日本政界領導者很少使用），並稱日本也在尋求以自己的方式在這一區域成為大國。另一方面，國力式微的美國因見中共國力如日中天，無法單獨對抗，因而企圖利用中日釣魚臺領土紛爭與日本的積極反中製造對美國有利的戰略優勢，盼能逼迫北京做出經濟讓步。2014年7月習近平訪問韓國，與朴槿惠達成協議在是年底完成韓中FTA，構建中韓經濟為主軸的東北亞經濟整合模式以對臺灣、北韓、日本與美國施壓，為同年11月APEC高峰會營造有利的局面。本文主旨在探討韓中FTA對東北亞乃至亞洲經濟整合模式的衝擊，首先聚焦於導致韓中FTA的主因，即習近平上臺的新朝鮮半島政策，然後剖析南韓、日本與臺灣的因應對策之比較，結果顯示台日所受到的負面衝擊大，尤其是前者最大。 Traditionally international politics on the Korean peninsula was strategically oriented. However, the axis of international politics on the Korean peninsula has changed from geo-politics to geo-economics due largely to the emergence of Chinese top leader Xi Jinping. With an aim to shape new types of big power relationship with the United States, President Xi decides to reprioritize China's policy toward Northeast Asia and to make it a core part of that strategy. This policy shift has its origin (a response to changing international environment since the second half of 1990s) and can be regarded as a part of the second phase of China's grand strategy for the 21st century. The salient example of this policy change was President Xi's July trip to Seoul. He became the first top Chinese leader who paid his visit to South Korea ahead of North Korea. Moreover, he reached an agreement with his counterpart Park Geun-hye to sign bilateral FTA by the end of this year. The represents a tactical shift of China's approach to Northeast Asian economic integration from focusing on China-Korea-Japan trilateral FTA to ChinaKorea FTA. This paper is to explore reasons behind this policy shift, then the agreement of Sino-South Korea FTA negotiations to conclude by the end of 2014 and its economic implications for Northeast Asia.