The purpose of this study is to forecast the statistical probability of the damaging earthquakes based on the seismicity of the area source zones and active faults in Taiwan. The return period of damaging earthquakes of active faults is evaluated according to both the characteristics of faults investigated by Central Geological Survey(MOEA) and the seismicity around the active faults. For the frequent-earthquake area, the occurrence probabilities in the next 10-and 30-year is calculated based on the probability distribution function of earthquake magnitude in that area. The final goal is to establish the probability distribution map of the damaging earthquakes for the next 10-and 30-year for Taiwan.
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