既有強權對崛起強權的政策選擇分析：以美國對「日本崛起」與「中國崛起」之回應為例

An Analysis of Dominant Powers’ Policy Options toward Rising Powers: Examples of the U.S. Reactions to the Rise of Japan and China

本文認為，「既有強權美國vs.崛起強權日本」（1931-1941）與「既有強權美國vs.崛起強權中國」（1993-2018）的比較，能為現今的美中關係提供許多建設性的思考。本文從既有強權的角度觀察其如何回應崛起強權；以Randall Schweller的歸納為基礎而建立一個相對完整的政策選擇全貌。作者發現：面對1931~1941年崛起的日本，美國先採「中立、綏靖」，後改採「制衡」，最終採「戰爭」。面對1993-2018年崛起的中國，美國以「交往」為基調而佐以「戰略夥伴關係」，然因中國崛起與美國重返亞洲，其逐漸轉成「既交往又制衡」，是典型的「混合策略」。如此，成就兩個不同的大國互動結果。 This paper argues that the comparative study of the two cases - the USdominant power vs. the Japan rising power(1931-1941) and the US dominantpower vs. the China rising power(1993-2018) can provide ample constructivethinking on the contemporary US-China relations. This paper focuses on how adominant power reacts to a rising power. An analytical framework of dominantpowers’ policy options toward rising powers, based on Randall Schweller'stheories, is developed and applied to this study. This paper has found that facinga rising Japan from 1931 to 1941, the US first opted for neutrality and appeasement,but later changed to balancing, which eventually led to war. In contrast,facing a rising China from 1993 to 2018, the US opted for engagement inprinciple and supplemented it with strategic partnership. However, in the caseof rising China, due to the return of the US to Asia, the US gradually shifted its policy to engagement while balancing - this type of shift is a typical mixedstrategy. As such, two different kinds of interactions between great powers haveresulted in different consequences.