全球體系、區域次體系與極數國定理：攻勢現實主義的案例檢證

Global System, Regional Sub-System and the Theorem of Polarity: A Case-Study Revision of Offensive Realism

本研究認為，為更加切合國際關係的現實，必須從全球與區域層次重新修正國際關係理論的結構現實主義。攻勢現實主義雖然初步涉及全球－區域層次，提出區域霸權概念，不過由於該理論在本體論、體系結構理論和區域層次上的論述缺失，最終還是受到守勢現實主義框架的限制。本文因此以Barry Buzan和Richard Little的「互動能力」概念作為物質性建構的關鍵因素，使攻勢現實主義的本體論和體系結構觀得以動態化，並填補該理論在區域層次上的不足。本文也將區域層次作為全球層次的基礎，提出只有在區域層次贏得「區域霸權」，才能獲得全球層次「極數國」的資格，而全球層次的五大運作邏輯，本文稱為「極數國定理」。由於攻勢現實主義已對全球層次有完整論述，因此本研究的案例驗證聚焦在檢視極數國定理對東亞區域體系的應用，闡明全球層次對區域層次的影響。討論範圍分別以戰間期至二戰、冷戰和後冷戰時期的東亞區域體系，論證不同全球極數情勢對區域層次的干預偏好，以及區域層次極性結構轉換對全球層次的影響，最後並提出美國為維持單極，對東亞、歐洲、斯拉夫三個次體系的干預預期，以充實改進版攻勢理論的政策關連性與運用性。 This study argues that in order to fit into international relations, it is necessaryto establish a global-regional level of structural realism. Despite the contributionof Offensive Realism by bringing in regional hegemony to the globallevel, it challenges the traditional assumption of structural realism, which is theconstant anarchy underlies the international system. However, due to the deficiencyof Offensive Realism in explaining ontology, system-structure theory, aswell as the regional level, it ultimately returns to the framework of DefensiveRealism.Therefore, the study uses Barry Buzan's and Richard Little's “interactioncapacity” as the foundation of material construction and the ontology andsystem-structure of dynamic offensive realism, which is used to complement itsregional level and adopt regions as the basis of global system, given that onlyregional hegemony is qualified for the global poles. Moreover, this study combinesthe global thesis of Offensive Realism to propose five global operationallogics: the Theorem of Polarity. Given that Offensive Realism has been fully addressed at the global level,the case validation of this study will focus on examining the parts of the Theoremof Polarity and its effects worldwide on the regional level. The study differentiatesbetween the interwar period until World War II, the Cold War andthe regional system of East Asia during the post-Cold War era, and discussesthe influence of global poles on regions within different global polarities, thepreference of interference of structures, as well as the influence of the globallevel within regional polarity-structure transformation.