金正恩時期中朝關係的合作與衝突：以國家利益觀點分析

Cooperation and Conflict of Relations between China and North Korea in Kim Jong-Un Era: A National Interest Perspective

本研究目的在於，從中國與北韓的國家利益角度，分析金正恩時期中朝之間合作與衝突的背景，進而探討雙方關係的走向。自習近平與金正恩於2013年分別出任中國與北韓的國家元首以來，由於中朝兩國皆採取對對方國家利益有所損失的政策，使雙方關係陷入緊張。就北韓的國家利益而言，穩定以金正恩為首的共產黨政權為第一要務。因此，金正恩上台之後，繼承金正日的「先軍政治」，持續研發軍事科技，進行試射導彈、第3次核試爆，採取「經濟、核武建設並進路線」，以凝聚國內團結，且處決危及金正恩政治權威的人物來鞏固其權力。另外，北韓對國防戰略上，將核武作為減少兩韓戰力差距、朝美協商的籌碼，以獲得美國的安全保障。但北韓的核武戰略危害了中國的國家利益。中國的核心利益包括主權、安全、穩定，其周邊局勢以朝鮮半島經東海到南海影響最甚。因此中國反對北韓持有核武，並對北韓採取強硬態度，參與國際社會對北韓制裁，進而將北韓無核化作為與美國外交合作管道，並透過中美合作，實現北韓無核化。同時，尋找建構中美新型大國關係的方向。但北韓位於東北亞地緣政治的中心地帶，並鄰近中國東北地區。美國採取「重返亞洲」政策後，和南韓與日本加強安全同盟。在此情況下，北韓政權的狀況將會對東北亞國際政治局勢產生動盪，亦將會升溫中國的周邊局勢的不確定性，乃至對中國國家利益產生負面影響。因此，中國希望北韓維持一個穩定的共產政權，以維護其周邊局勢的穩定。從兩國國家利益上看，儘管金正恩認為，核武戰略維護北韓國防安全保障，使雙方關係造成衝突；然而，對中國而言，維護北韓共產體系的存續符合其國家利益。由此可知，雙方基於其國家利益仍將持續陷入反覆的合作又衝突的關係。 The purpose of this project is to analyze the historical background of cooperationand conflict between China and North Korea during the Kim Jungunera from both Chinese and North Korean's national-interest perspective,as well as the direction of bilateral relationships. Since Xi Jinping and KimJong-un took office as China and North Korea's head of state in 2013respectively, both countries have been adopting policies to lose their people'snational interest from each other, which in turn have caused great tensionbetween the two countries.From the viewpoint of North Korean's national interests, maintainingstability of the communist regime headed by Kim Jong-un is the top priority.Therefore, since Kim Jong-un took office, North Korea has been inheritingKim Jong-il's “military-first politics,” and has been continuing to developmilitary technology, holding missile tests, and executing its 3rd nuclear test.Moreover, he has adopted equal emphasis policy for nuclear and economicdevelopment, so as to solidify its people. He also executed people who wereendangering his political authority. Furthermore, North Korea has beendeveloping nuclear weapons to reduce the gap of military power betweenNorth Korea and South Korea, and is using nuclear weaponry as a bargainingchip in their negotiations with the United States. However, North Korea's nuclear strategy also jeopardized China's national interests. China's corenational interests include sovereignty, security, and stability.Additionally, since the political situations around China, such astensions in the Korean Peninsula, East and China Seas, were key to China'snational interests, China has been opposing North Korea's policy of holdingnuclear weapons. China also has been adopting hardline policy to take partin the financial sanction on North Korea by international society.Furthermore, China has been exploiting channels of diplomatic co-operationwith United States as denuclearization of North Korea, and has been trying torealize it through China-United States co-operation, as well as seeking tobuild new relations with the United States.However, China-U.S. relations are made complicated when the UnitedStates has been strengthening security alliance with South Korea and Japan,after Clinton declared the U.S. return to Asia. In this circumstance, the statusof the North Korean regime would generate political turbulence in northeastAsia, given North Korea's geographic location in Asia and its closeproximity to northeast China, as well as heat up political uncertainty aroundChina, and even cause negative impact on China's national interests.Therefore, China would like to maintain a stable communist regime in NorthKorea and a steady situation in its surrounding area.In terms of national interests for both countries, Kim Jong-un thinks thatnuclear strategy would provoke a conflict of interests between China andNorth Korea, but could keep national defense security for North Korea.However, for China, maintaining a balanced and a continuance of communistregime in North Korea corresponds to its national interests. As a result, therelationship between China and North Korea is an uneasy mix of cooperationand conflict due to their differing national interests.