公諸於眾：淺析同盟合作中的盟友間爭端

Entanglement in Public: A Study on Intra-Alliance Disputes in Security Cooperation

本文探究安全同盟成員間對於安全合作的爭端，主要目的為瞭解成員在何種狀況下會公開質疑同盟關係，以及公開同盟爭端對同盟關係的長遠影響。國家基於安全需求加入同盟條約，由於盟國的安全利益與履約能力隨著國際政治波動而變化，盟友可能對同盟的效益產生歧見，進而對同盟關係產生爭執。但是將聯盟合作的問題公諸於世，可能使外部威脅懷疑同盟的可信度，因此公開聯盟爭端的出現表示同盟關係出現變化，值得吾人瞭解背後的成因與其影響。本文檢視冷戰間成立的雙邊同盟，分析外部威脅、盟友間國家實力對比、以及民主化程度三個變數，結果顯示，如果同盟不能反映聯盟內外變動帶來對安全利益的需求，或是盟友想要展現解決同盟問題的決心時，盟友會提出抱怨、質疑、或要求改善同盟關係，即使盟國瞭解公開內部不和可能帶來安全風險，他們仍願意提出爭端。本文進一步發現，曾出現公開爭端的同盟關係更容易破裂、同盟持續期間較短，這表示同盟爭端為觀察安全同盟未來發展的重要指標，盟友能否保持友好同盟關係，端賴於爭端是否獲得妥善解決。 This paper examines why members of a security alliance raise disputes with their allies in public and the impact of such disputes on alliance relations. Allies sometimes have problems when they cooperate under a security alliance. Members of an alliance may have different views about how to enforce the alliance agreement; they may find their allies incapable of providing the security benefit they promised; or they may claim that their allies' actions are harmful to mutual security interests. Allies may raise disputes to address these concerns on alliance cooperation. This paper examines the 187 bilateral alliance treaties between 1945 and 2007 with original data on alliance disputes. The large-N analysis shows that the rise of external threats, power preponderance between allies, and joining a democracy have a positive impact on members' decisions to raise public disputes. This paper further finds that public disputes increase the risk of treaty violations. Alliances that have experienced open arguments about security cooperation are less likely to be sustained.