半總統制次類型、府會關係與族群抗議

The Subtypes of Semi-presidentialism, President-Parliament Relations, and Ethnic Protest

半總統制已成為許多民主國家所普遍採用的政府體制，但對於半總統制如何影響族群衝突，既有文獻少有相關的探討。本文試圖從總統議會制以及總理總統制所提供的誘因機制，探討半總統制次類型在不同的府會關係下，如何影響族群抗議。本文以1985-2003年期間採用半總統制且有族群分歧的民主國家作為研究對象，進行量化研究。本文發現，在其他條件相同的情形下，相較於總理總統制國家的一致政府與分立政府時期以及總統議會制國家的一致政府時期，總統議會制國家的分立政府時期將增加族群抗議的強度。本文在文後也提供個案分析，以探討半總統制次類型效果的內生性問題。 While semi-presidentialism has been widely adopted in many democratic countries, there have been very few studies exploring how the subtypes of semi-presidentialism affect ethnic conflict. This paper explores how the subtypes of semi-presidentialism, through the incentive mechanisms they provide, affect ethnic protest under different president-parliament relations. Through a large-N study on all the semi-presidential democracies for the period 1985 to 2003, which have suffered from ethnic divisions, this article finds that, other things being equal, compared to premier-presidential systems during both periods of unified and divided governments, and to president-parliamentary systems during periods of unified governments, president-parliamentary systems during periods of divided governments lead to more intense ethnic protest. This article also provides case studies to address the endogeneity problem of the effects of the subtypes of semi-presidentialism.