川普主義、美陸貿易戰及其對全球經濟影響

Trumpism, Sino-US Trade War and its Implications for Global Economy

美陸貿易戰迄今已交鋒一年餘，導致全球經濟籠罩在其陰影之下。世貿組織（WTO）、世界銀行、經濟合作暨發展組織（OECD）等國際組織都大幅修正成長預測，且理由都差不多，大抵跟美中貿易衝突、英國脫歐鬧劇以及美國可能加徵汽車關稅等變數，連帶影響各國經濟成長動能有關，總結而言最大變數莫過於川普及其政府所採行的貿易談判策略。WTO大幅調降2019年全球貿易成長預測，從去年底的3.7%下修至2.6%，也不看好2020年。以2018年全球貿易總值換算，WTO調降1個百分點等於少掉1,740億美元的貿易值，幾乎是台灣去年出口總值的一半。WTO還推算若是貿易戰持續惡化，在最壞情境下全球貿易值會少掉17個百分點，屆時全球貿易可為陷入急凍期。 With the rise of Donald Trump as U.S. President, his tariff war against China as well as tensions between the U.S. and other major trading partners have contributed to uncertainty that is hurting business and consumer sentiment, so are international supply chains. For now at least, the escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have not stopped Apple from deepening its manufacturing footprint in China, the company's most significant production base. Nevertheless, according to Goldman Sachs report, Taiwan and Malaysia will suffer the most in the near term if a U.S.-China purchasing agreement goes through, while South Korea and Japan also have much to lose. Peaceful economic coexistence between the U.S. and China is the only way to prevent costly trade wars. However, economic interests of other economies might be compromised by the emergence of a Sino-US condominium or G2 in the global economy, Japan and the EU in particular. The salient example is the auto sector landscape which has been reshaped as China veers toward an ultra-competitive electric future and Sino-US collaboration in electric vehicles ( EVs) . As a result, Tesla and BYD have emerged as global leaders in the EVs market, while traditional auto champions such as German Volkswagen and Japanese Toyota are relegated to hardware providers. In addition, the US and China are also dominating in the artificial intelligence (AI) and the 5G race as well. Both Japan and the EU are lagging behind the two superpowers. However, the US and China might get emotional and believe no deal is better than a bad deal. If that is the case, then a new Cold War based on technology and trade would be inevitable.