國際貿易新秩序下臺灣與亞太各國的農產經貿關係

The Agricultural Trade Between Taiwan and Asian Pacific Countries under the New World Trade Order

本文利用全球貿易可計算一般均衡分析模型（Global Trade Analysis Project，GTAP）及其最新版資料庫來探討區域經濟整合之發展對台灣整體經濟發展以及農產品的產值與對外貿易的影響，模擬結果顯示區域經濟整合組織之發展所帶來之貿易創造及貿易移轉效果，並非使所有區域內國家皆受益，而區域外之經濟體影響亦有得有失。東協加三之形成對區域外國家（包括台灣）所帶來之威脅較大，若以APEC來看，無論是封閉性或是開放性區域經濟，皆會使台灣與區域內各經濟體之貿易大幅增加，不過封閉性的APEC將對台灣農產品之出口較有利。 The study investigates the impact of regional economic integration on Taiwan’s economic development and agricultural trade using a computable general equilibrium model – the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and its new database. The simulation results indicates that the trade creation and trade diversion effects by the regional free trade agreements will not necessarily benefit all the member economies, nor the non-members. The integration of ASEAN plus 3 will pose a bigger threat to many Asian Pacific countries including Taiwan. Both the open or closed APEC will facilitate greater trading relationship among Taiwan and the other APEC members, but a closed APEC will be more beneficial to Taiwan in terms of promoting her agricultural exports.