中美氣候變化協定與2015巴黎氣候變化高峰

China-US Climate Change Agreement and Paris Climate Change Summit 2015

進入新世紀，中美關係已經是人類歷史上最為複雜的兩個強權關係。中國越加強勁崛起後影響力逐漸由區域走向全球，如何管理中美兩強的戰略競爭考驗著華府與北京的決策者。2013年6月，美國總統歐巴馬與新任中國國家主席習近平首次舉行峰會，氣候變化議題與中美經貿關係成為會談重點。隨著全球氣候暖化越加明顯、越來越頻繁重大天然災害的發生，對各地均造成嚴重損害，氣候變化已是全球安全重大的議題，全球氣候治理政治也更加受到重視，而氣候變化科學研究證實人為因素是造成全球暖化主要因素。歐盟在全球氣候變化向來扮演領導者，2009年哥本哈根氣候峰會後歐盟調整其原先較具規範性議程及不具現實的期望，2011年南非德班氣候峰會時歐盟改採務實策略，巧妙地勸說強權國家向來不願妥協的立場，也是中美願意趨前合作原因之一。2015年11月30至12月11日，在法國巴黎召開的第21屆《聯合國氣候變化框架會議》（UN Framework Convention on Climate Change）因主辦國法國總統歐蘭德四年來積極奔走，以及中美在氣候變化議題展現合作，國際給予高度期待。會議落幕儘管各方仍有不盡滿意之處，卻也達成一些共識與進展。自2010年後，美國與中國是全球第一與第二大經濟體，兩國能源消費高居全球第一與第二，兩國的碳排放量也高居世界首一、首二。中美綜合國力差距更加接近，中美在氣候變化議題上合作在形式與實質上均有重要意義，戰略上更有必要性。第21屆《聯合國氣候變化框架會議》閉幕後達成的巴黎協定，獲得全球媒體、參與者以及眾多評論普遍喝采，咸認為是人類歷史上重大里程碑，全球主要排碳國也陸續加入簽署，2016年底印度的跟進更是鼓舞。實際上，2008年歐巴馬競選時即承諾致力氣候變化議題，2009年歐巴馬獲頒諾貝爾和平獎，但全球氣候變化的挑戰更加真實與嚴峻。歐巴馬第一任期在氣候變化政策的努力被抨擊無實質進展，投入的預算也有限。另一方面，2009年哥本哈根氣候變化會議後，來自眾多小島國家以及墨西哥、阿根廷等發展中國家的增大壓力，迫使中國必須在戰術上進行調整，改變了其長期以來對於氣候變化外交所持的立場。2015年底聯合國氣候變化會議，歐巴馬希望在外交上獲得政績，但其最後並未送參議院批准，僅是以其行政權進行國際承諾；習近平則大力推動大國外交與構建中美新型大國關係，中美均希望兩國關係有象徵與實質進展。本研究首將探討國際氣候變化政治的高度複雜性與涉及多邊、各國實質利益，而後從中美兩國在氣候變化的合作切入，掌握中美經由元首峰會推進氣候變化合作，以探尋當中意涵。 Sino-U.S. relations have become the most complex major-power relations entering the new century. With China’s powerful rise, its influence has gradually moved from the region to the world. How to manage the strategic competition relationship between China and the United States is a great test to the decision makers in Washington and Beijing. In June 2013, U.S. President Obama and the new Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first summit. Climate change issues and Sino-U.S. economic relations became the main focuses of the summit. While the phenomenon of global warming is becoming more and more obvious, the natural disasters occuring more and more frequently, climate change has caused serious damage everywhere in the world. Therefore the governance of climate change issues has brought more attention. The 21th yearly session of Conference of the Parties (COP), the 2015 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was held in Paris, France, from 30 November to 11 December, 2015. Due to the active campaign of French President Francois Hollande from the host country in his past four years, as well as Sino-U.S. cooperation on climate change issues, the international community had given high expectations to the COP-21. As a result, some consensus and progress had been reached, although not all parties were fully satisfied. Ever since 2010, the United States and China have been the world’s first and second largest economies. The energy consumption of the two countries also ranks first and second in the world, so as their carbon emissions. Now the U.S. and China have closed their gap on powers. Cooperation between China and the United States in the issues of climate change is of great significance both in form and in substance, not to mention the strategy necessity. The Paris Agreement was reached in the conclusion of the COP-21, welcomed by the media, participants, and many commentaries. It has been seen as a major milestone in the history of mankind. The world’s major carbon-removing countries have also followed to sign up. President Obama has committed to the climate change issues when running campaign in 2008. Obama was further awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009. However, the challenges of global climate change were more real and serious. In Obama’s first term, his policies on climate changes have been criticized for no substantial progress, and the budget utilized has been limited. On the other hand, after the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009, the increasing pressures from many small island countries and developing countries such as Mexico and Argentina forced China to adjust its tactics and changed its long-held position on climate change diplomacy. In 2015, Obama hoped to obtain diplomatic achievements but he did not send the Paris Agreement to the Senate for approval. Xi Jinping instead was vigorously promoted the major power diplomacy and to establish a new type of great power relations between China and the U.S.. In these contexts, both China and the United States hoped that the bilateral relationship could have symbolism and substance progress. This study thus would explore the highly complex nature of international climate change politics and its involvement in multilateral and national interests. And then proceed from the cooperation between China and the United States in climate change to master the efforts between the two countries through the summit in promoting climate change cooperation, and to find out their implications in the end.