國際貿易與總體經濟相關性之研究

Study on the Correlation between International Trade and Macroeconomic

自2015年台灣出口面臨嚴峻情勢起，至2016年3月出口連14黑乃2008年金融海嘯以來最不佳之紀錄。至2017年第4季為止，台灣貿易競爭力已連續六年下滑。本研究將了解自2009年金融海嘯以來台灣總體經濟對進出口貿易之影響，而由進出口貿易與GDP兩者的數據方面來探討這之間是否有相關性。而由實證研究結果發現，進出口貿易順逆差與國內生產毛額（GDP）之間存在正向關係。亦即總體經濟之表現對進出口貿易之競爭力具重要之影響力。 Since 2015, Taiwan’s exports have faced a severe situation, and by March 2016, exports were the worst record since the 2008 financial tsunami. As of the fourth quarter of 2017, Taiwan’s trade competitiveness has declined for six consecutive years. This study will understand the impact of Taiwan's macroeconomic on import and export trade since the financial tsunami in 2009, and whether there is any correlation between import and export trade and gross domestic product (GDP). From the empirical research results, it is found that there is a positive relationship between the import and export trade deficit and GDP. So the performance of macroeconomic has an important effect on the competitiveness of import and export trade.