球員複數年合約期間績效之初探：以中華職棒野手為例

Preliminary Study of The Performance of Players During Contracts for A Plurality of Years - A Case Study of Chinese Professional Baseball Players

背景：任何職業運動員，追求高薪的同時，更希冀有一份複數年合約使未來工作獲得保障。因此，球團會透過相關數據來評估是否值得給予複數年合約。但簽約年限越長，球團所承受的風險就越大。球員獲得複數年合約後所呈現的績效在過往研究中，僅有部分持續地成長，過半呈現退步的情形，然而當前有關我國職業棒球運動野手進行之科學性分析則付之闕如。目的：了解中華職棒之野手，複數年合約與績效之間的關聯性為何。方法：藉由相關文獻蒐集及球員數據的整理，並以合約週期理論探討複數年合約與球員績效的關係，進行內容分析。結果：中華職棒歷年來總計37位獲複數年合約的野手中，依選擇適合之要件進行篩選，共有47份複數年合約。接近六成的合約中（28份），球員於簽約後的一年，績效呈下滑的趨勢。且這28份合約，有六成的合約（17份），簽約球員在前兩年的績效皆逐漸攀升，而簽約後績效下滑，出現了合約週期之現象。結論：中華職棒野手與國外職棒有相似之趨勢，簽訂複數年合約的野手，過半存有合約週期發生之現象。同時亦發現，並非所有野手的最高績效皆出現在合約當年，而是在前兩年，簽約後績效仍持續下滑。建議：國內對中華職棒複數年的相關研究較少，研究面向、研究方法的應用仍有拓展的空間，未來可增加更多樣性的客觀攻守數據、經紀人、球團與球員的訪談調查及其他輔助資料，使績效評估更加完善而全面。

Background: While any professional athlete is pursuing high salaries, he hopes to have a multiple year contracts to secure future work. However, the longer the signing period, the greater the risk to the team. The performance of the players after obtaining multiple year contracts in the previous study, only part of the continuous growth, more than half of the situation showed a retrogression. Objective: To understand the relevance of the hands of the players and the relationship between contract performance over several years and performance. Methods: Using the contract cycle theory to explore the relationship between multiple year contracts and player performance. Results: Of all the 47 multiple year contracts, nearly 60% of the contracts (28), the year after the players signed the contract, the performance of the players showed a downward trend. And in these 28 contracts, 60% of the contracts (17) were signed, two years of performance have gradually increased, and after the signing of performance, there has been a contract cycle theory. Suggestion: In the future, more diverse objective offensive and defensive data, interviews with managers, teams and players can be added.