投資和平？外資互賴與鼓勵外資政策對國家間衝突影響之分析（1985～2001）

Investing in Peace: Do FDI Interdependence and Shared Pro-FDI Policies Reduce Interstate Conflict?(1985~2001)

自1970年代以來，外來直接投資（FDI）已成為驅動經濟全球化與形塑世界政經格局最重要的因素之一。儘管商業自由主義強調貿易互賴對國家間衝突的和平影響，但外來直接投資與國際衝突的關聯尚未在學界有深入的探討。本文從商業自由主義觀點出發，檢視外資因素對國家間衝突的和平影響。超越傳統觀點僅從機會成本的角度分析經濟因素對國家間衝突的抑制效果，本文主張國家的鼓勵外資政策隱含該國不願使用武力作為國家間爭端解決方式的主觀意向。本文亦主張兩國間均衡的外資互賴產生的和平影響，將隨不同經濟發展程度的成對國家而有差異。本文分析從1985年至2001年在成對國家間外資因素與國家間衝突的關聯，研究顯示均衡外資互賴與較高程度的財產權保護是減少兩國爆發衝突的重要因素。 Since the 1970s, a rapid surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) has become one of the most important factors shaping the landscape of the global political economy. While theorists of commercial liberalism place emphasis on trade and claim the pacifying effects of economic interdependence on interstate conflict, few recognize plausible linkages between FDI and interstate conflict. This goal of this paper is to investigate the influence of FDI on interstate conflict. Differing from the conventional wisdom that merely focuses on the impact of opportunity costs on conflict, it argues that states' pro-FDI policies may reveal their reluctance to initiate military action in interstate disputes. Moreover, this paper also contends that symmetrical FDI interdependence may be a promising factor facilitating peace. Nevertheless, the pacifying effects of the preceding FDI factors may vary in different dyads of state combination between developed and developing countries, due to the structural pattern of FDI flows. This paper analyzes the FDI-conflict relationship from 1985 to 2001. The findings suggest that the institutional feature of property rights protection in a dyad of states is likely to be a credible indicator promoting the prospect of peace between states.