台灣地方層級社會抗議之解析（1992～2008）：一個政治機會結構的觀點

Explaining Local Protests in Taiwan (1992-2008): From the Perspective of Political Opportunity Structure

社會抗爭在台灣政治變遷的過程中扮演很重要的角色。過去關於台灣社會運動的文獻大多為質化案例研究，卻很少有研究解釋為何台灣有些地區較常發生社會抗爭，而有些地區卻不常出現抗爭。為了補充相關文獻的不足，本研究利用一個獨特的抗議事件資料庫，採取政治機會結構論的視角，解析台灣各縣市為何會有不同的抗爭頻率。本研究的實證分析顯示：第一，在其他條件不變的情況下，民進黨執政的縣市較常發生地方抗議事件；第二，各縣市的地方抗議在選舉年時，會有較高的發生頻率；第三，民進黨籍縣市議員當選的比例，對於地方抗議事件的頻率沒有顯著的影響。總結而言，本研究為台灣公民社會的發展提出更細膩的解釋，同時也對新興民主國家的政治過程提出更深刻的理解。 Social protests have played an important role in the process of political change in Taiwan. Although many studies on Taiwan's social movements are qualitative analyses focusing on specific cases, few explain the variation in the frequency of social protests within Taiwan. To fill this empirical gap, this paper draws hypotheses from the theory of political opportunity structure and subjects it to empirical tests using a unique dataset of subnational protest events. First, the empirical analyses show that the frequency of local protests tends to be higher in a locality where the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in power. Secondly, the results demonstrate that, in an election year, local citizens have stronger incentives to protest. Finally, we find that the share of seats of the DPP in a locality council does not have a significant effect on local protests. Overall, this study facilitates a better understanding of the development of Taiwan's civil society and provides important insights regarding the political process in new democracies.