中小型國家的安全策略及其路徑演變：以塞爾維亞、亞美尼亞與烏克蘭為例

The Security Strategies and Path Development of Small and Medium-Sized States: Case Studies of Serbia, Armenia and Ukraine

本文集中在中小型國家的策略選擇及轉型研究，本文釐清哪些因素影響中小型國家策略選擇的主要變因，由此理解這些國家為何選擇此種策略選擇的起因。根據這些國家的初始定位及演進過程，本文將勾勒出中小型國家可能的策略變化，以此探索這些變化過程可能原因。本文首先假定影響中小型國家策略選擇的主要因素為政治菁英遞檀、經貿交流與區域安全威脅，這些因素在不同國家產生的效果不盡相同。其次，本文假定策略變化的軌跡可區分為以經濟依賴為主的經濟避險（Hedging for Profit）類型、以平衡威脅為主的安全避險（Hedging for Security）類型、以及因內部分裂的政治暴力（Political Violence）類型，這三種類型分別代表中小型國家策略變化的基本架構。為能更清楚說明這些基本類型的具體圖像，本文透過觀察塞爾維亞、亞美尼亞與烏克蘭三國具體案例，說明這三國策略轉變的多樣面貌及其本文分析架構之關聯，最終並提出個案研究的經驗觀察。 This paper attempts to clarify small and medium states' (SMSs) security strategies in the face of global power competition. It tries to explain SMSs' versatile security choices between balancing and bandwagoning and analyses their path development. First, the author argues that the shift from balancing to bandwagoning is based on the effect of “hedging for profit,” which depicts the importance of economic dependency. Second, “hedging for security” is also the author's idea for explaining why SMSs re-adjust their policies, and it explains the balance of threat. Finally, the changes in some SMSs' security choices may not come from external factors; instead, political violence or revolution from within is another major factor in explaining causal relations. This article uses the cases of Serbia, Armenia and Ukraine as reference points for delineating different path developments.