考慮參數不確定性之船舶直流帶狀配電系統規劃

Planning of Ship DC Zonal Electric Distribution Systems Considering Uncertain Parameters

船舶直流帶狀配電系統較傳統交流放射狀架構，在供電品質、重量、人力、成本上具有許多優勢，逐漸受到世界各大船廠關注。由於未來的船電系統運轉規劃分析，存在許多不確定因素，以系統規劃觀點而言，可以將問題表示成隨機變數。為克服不確定參數對規劃分析結果的影響，本文提出隨機交／直流電力潮流計算方法，來考慮不確定參數的變動及交直流電轉換之電力轉換器操作行為。系統規劃分析結果，包括電壓、相角、線路潮流、轉換器操作參數等可能的以機率密度函數來表示。測試結果以一艘具有12個匯流排、4台發電機、及4組電力轉換器之船舶直流帶狀配電系統做為研究對象，進行實例分析。測試結果顯示本文提出的分析方法確實可以克服不確定參數的影響，決定出系統規劃分析結果可能的分佈範圍，使分析結果更具信賴度。 In contrast with traditional AC radial distribution systems, significant giants can be realized in terms of supply quality, weight, manning, and cast from a shipboard DC zonal electric distribution system (ZEDS). The system planning is one of the most important tasks for this type of the system. However, there are a number of uncertainties that can significantly affect the system planning analysis result in the system in the future. From a point of system planning view, the problem can be modeled as a probabilistic one. This paper proposes a probabilistic AC/DC power flow method to consider the variations in input parameters and operation of power converters. The system planning results including bus voltages, phase angles, network flows, and power converter operation parameters are represented as probability density functions. A shipboard DC ZEDS with 12 buses, 4 generators, and 4 power converters is used for the analysis. Test results have shown that the proposed method can effectively accommodate the uncertain parameters effect and determine the true power flow solution distributions and consequently the planning result would be more confident.