一個機率性土地發展分析模式

A Probabilistic Model of Land Development Analysis

傳統土地使用研究多偏向總體性之描述解釋，缺乏以微觀觀點來考量環境因子對個別土地發展的影響，較少觸及個別土地可能因環境屬性而影響其土地發展之狀況，以致較難深入掌握個別土地發展的因果關係。因此，本文乃選取適當的影響土地發展之環境潛能因子，利用個體選擇理論（discrete choice theory），建構一個「機率性土地發展分析模式」；其間並結合地理資訊系統技術，進行模式校估及分析各項有關空間資料之處理與分析；最後並以嘉義縣中埔鄉為例進行個案實證研究。全文內容包括：1.前言；2.相關文獻回顧；3.模式建構；4.實證研究；5.結論與建議。結果發現地形、斷層、地質等11個因子，確實是土地是否發展的主要影響因素。 Most of the traditional studies about land use mainly focus on general description and overall interpretation, thus, ignore the differences among each land parcel and the micro view points. As the result, we are unable to draw up specific land development based on the present studies. Therefore, this paper adapts environmental factors which effecting land development, and builds the Probabilistic Model of Land Development Analysis with the technologies of Discrete Choice theory and Geographic Information System. The purpose of this paper is to capture the relationships between the environmental potential and land development, and to analyze spatial situations of lands, to be the forward-looking of land development. The study on Chunpu, the area in Chai-yi County, is made as the empirical study of this paper. There are five parts in this paper, including introduction, documents review, model framework, the empirical study and the conclusion. Our result shows that the 11 main factors of which affect the land development for sure are topography, geology and the geology fault...etc.