區域人口分布之時空分析

A Spatio-temporal Analysis of Regional Population Distribution

自1950年代開始，台灣地區人口分布即逐漸出現明顯的極化現象，引起政府相關部門對於區域均衡發展問題之重視，隨後並開始陸續推行區域計畫，以改善人口過度集中於部份地區的現象。雖然區域計畫之推行已有二十多年，但是否真正達到了均衡區域人口分布之目標，確實是值得深入追蹤探討。過去有關人口分布之研究不少，但大多採用一般統計技術來分析，此類方法學雖然亦可局部說明某些人口分布與時間變遷之現象，但對於空間變化關係之全盤掌握則較為困難。另方面，相關研究也未見有基於檢視區域計畫實施成效的觀點，而觀察分析區域人口分布之時空變化者。基於此，本文乃運用空間自我相關分析之理論與技術，並配合地理資訊系統之輔助分析功能，嘗試整合發展出一套較適合於區域人口分布研究的時空分析方法，並據此針對區域計畫實施前後，各縣市地區人口時空變化之型態作一比較分析，以作為未來區域計畫修訂相關政策之參考依據。 Since 1950s, Taiwan began to show obvious phenomenon of 'polarization' in its regional population distribution, which quickly caught the eye of government to notice the equality of regional development. To encounter this problem, government started to pursue regional plan year by year. Until now, regional plans have been implemented for over twenty years, nevertheless the goal of balance population distribution still doubts, and thus the topic deserves deeper discussion. There has been quite a body of research literature on population distribution, most of them adopted statistical techniques for analysis, although this kind of methodology can demonstrate some trends of population distribution, it has difficulties in understanding the whole picture of spatial change. Meanwhile, related studies have never focussed on the implementation effects of regional plan, and to analyze the change of regional population distribution by time and space. Under this circumstance, this study will try to develop a better approach for spatio-temporal analysis, by putting theory of spatial autocorrelation and GIS function together. In this way, the pattern of how population distribution varies over time in each county before and after the execution of regional plan will be compared and analyzed, and the results can be further utilized as a reference for future revision of regional plans.