日本の第三次大戦略–安倍内閣の経済と外交の課題–

日本第三次大戰略──安倍內閣之經濟與外交課題（Japan's Third Grand Strategy: Economic and Diplomatic Issues of the Abe Administration）

日本史上有三次強化國家的大戰略。第一次大戰略（1853-1945年）是明治維新，讓日本媲美歐美列強。戰後復興的第二次大戰略（1945-1991年）在美國強大的指導力下，從戰敗國的身份重新出發，最終成為世界第二經濟大國。第一次大戰略經歷92年，第二次大戰略恰巧一半46年。泡沫經濟破滅與失去的二十年之後，日本正在實行第三次大戰略。川普總統的當選堪稱2016年的黑船來航，則日幣匯率和汽車貿易的激烈發言，即是「打擊日本」之新外來壓力。繼大日本帝國、世界第二經濟大國之後，安倍政權的「奪回強日本」大戰略期望創造第三次奇蹟。因此日美中「三國志」的新常態是「奪回強日本」vs.「讓美國再次偉大」vs.「實現中華民族偉大復興的中國夢」。在外交．安全保障上，日本像風一樣地快速移動，台灣和ASEAN各國像林一樣靜靜地衡量三大國，美國像火一樣地猛烈攻擊，中國像山一樣地韜光養晦，維持陣形。三國志的戰略結構是「風林火山」。所謂三大之間難為小，日美同盟的強化正是一股會助長火勢的強風。 Over the years, there have been three grand strategies in Japan to strengthen the country. During the first grand strategy, the Meiji Restoration tried to attain equality with the Great Powers of Europe and America. The second grand strategy created the second largest economy in the world from postwar reconstruction with the assistance of strong American leadership. Donald J. Trump's victory in the presidential race represents the Black Ships of 2016, and ＂Japan bashing＂over currency manipulation and car trade is the new foreign pressure. The third grand strategy of ＂bring back a strong Japan＂intends to create a third miracle period, following the Empire of Japan and the second largest economy. A big picture characterized by the new normal of Japan-America-China ＂Sangokushi (三國志)＂is emerging as ＂bring back a strong Japan＂vs. ＂make America great again＂vs. ＂realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, called the Chinese Dream＂. As Japan moves as swift as the wind, Taiwan and ASEAN countries now weigh the three large countries as a balance and remain silent as a forest, while America attacks as fierce as fire and China stays as unshakable as a mountain. The strategic structure of Sangokushi is therefore represented by ＂Fūrinkazan (風林火山): Wind, Forest, Fire, Mountain＂.