模糊德爾菲法應用於國有林地管理之探討

Application of Fuzzy Delphi Method on National Forestland Management

本研究旨在探討國有林地之經營管理，由文獻回顧及訪談林地經營相關人員，將主題歸納為：地籍管理、出租地管理及林地管理體制等三大類。三大類林地經營項目中共包括29個林地管理問題，此外每個問題又可再區分為重要和急迫層級。問卷設計係以模糊德爾菲法為基礎，並採用Kruskal-Wallis單因子等級變異分析檢定受訪專家觀點的一致性，由問卷調查方式取得42份專家問卷供為分析。由分析所得之結果顯示：（1）在問題之重要層級方面有83%達到共識（收斂）；在急迫層級方面則有79%的問題達到共識。（2）經Kruskal-Wallis統計測驗的結果，大多的問題均呈現不顯著，亦即不同類別專家的歧見低，看法頗為一致。 The purpose of this study was to explore national forestland management. Three subjectswere classified after collecting references and visiting the forestland managers, which were cadastralmanagement, leased forestland management and forestland managed frame, respectively. Total 29problems were included in three subjects. In addition to each question of questionnaire were also dividedinto important and imperiousness levels at the base of the fuzzy Delphi method. Kruskal-Wallis one wayanalysis of variance by ranks also used to test coincidence of views of expert groups. Data were collectedfrom 42 experts by questionnaire. The results showed: (1) There are 83% problem achieved consensus inimportant levels, and 79% achieved consensus in imperiousness levels. (2) Most problems appearedcoincidence in views of expert groups by Kruskal-Wallis test, it means that there are low differentopinions in many problems.

The purpose of this study was to explore national forestland management. Three subjectswere classified after collecting references and visiting the forestland managers, which were cadastralmanagement, leased forestland management and forestland managed frame, respectively. Total 29problems were included in three subjects. In addition to each question of questionnaire were also dividedinto important and imperiousness levels at the base of the fuzzy Delphi method. Kruskal-Wallis one wayanalysis of variance by ranks also used to test coincidence of views of expert groups. Data were collectedfrom 42 experts by questionnaire. The results showed: (1) There are 83% problem achieved consensus inimportant levels, and 79% achieved consensus in imperiousness levels. (2) Most problems appearedcoincidence in views of expert groups by Kruskal-Wallis test, it means that there are low differentopinions in many problems.