經濟成長、薪資停滯？初探台灣實質薪資與勞動生產力成長脫鉤之成因

DECOUPLING OF WAGE GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN TAIWAN: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

過去15年來，台灣的勞動生產力（每單位勞動的實質產出）持續成長，但實質薪資卻出現停滯。過去文獻多半將此一現象歸咎於我國勞動報酬份額持續下滑，亦即這是經濟成長果實「分配不均」所致。本文利用經濟模型與統計資料，將實質薪資與勞動生產力的成長差異拆解為三項因素的變動趨勢：（1）勞動報酬份額；（2）薪資佔勞動報酬之比率；（3）產出對消費之相對價格（GDP平減指數對消費者物價指數之比值）。與過去看法不同，實證結果顯示在2002-2014年間，絕大部分（87％）的每工時實質薪資與勞動生產力的成長差異，是來自於我國產出價格相對消費價格的下滑，而非勞動報酬份額的變化。進一步分析產出對消費之相對價格下跌的原因，並與南韓資料比較，我們發現台灣的實質薪資與勞動生產力之成長脫鉤現象可能與台灣貿易條件惡化有關。 One of the most puzzling facts about Taiwan's economy in the past 15 years is that the growth of the real wage rate has fallen far behind the growth of labor productivity (real GDP par hour worked). Many previous studies have suggested this phenomenon could be due to the decline in the share of lobar compensation. We examine this issue empirically by decomposing the growth gap between the real wage rate and labor productivity into the growth of three components: share of labor compensation, wage to labor compensation ratio and the relative price of output to consumption (i.e. the ratio of the GDP deflator to CPI). In contrast to the traditional view, we find that the change in the relative price of output to consumption contributes the most to the wage-productivity growth gap. The decline in the relative price of output to consumption can explain 87 % of the annual growth gap between the real wage rate and labor productivity during 2002-2014. Furthermore, by decomposing the change in the relative price of output to consumption and analyzing data from South Korea, we hind that the decoupling of wage growth and productivity growth actually reflects the deteriorating toms of trade.

One of the most puzzling facts about Taiwan's economy in the past 15 years is that the growth of the real wage rate has fallen far behind the growth of labor productivity (real GDP par hour worked). Many previous studies have suggested this phenomenon could be due to the decline in the share of lobar compensation. We examine this issue empirically by decomposing the growth gap between the real wage rate and labor productivity into the growth of three components: share of labor compensation, wage to labor compensation ratio and the relative price of output to consumption (i.e. the ratio of the GDP deflator to CPI). In contrast to the traditional view, we find that the change in the relative price of output to consumption contributes the most to the wage-productivity growth gap. The decline in the relative price of output to consumption can explain 87 % of the annual growth gap between the real wage rate and labor productivity during 2002-2014. Furthermore, by decomposing the change in the relative price of output to consumption and analyzing data from South Korea, we hind that the decoupling of wage growth and productivity growth actually reflects the deteriorating toms of trade.