新疆維吾爾自治區治理之政策走向（Governance Trends in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region）

新疆ウイグル自治区におけるガバナンスの行方

在中國共產黨即將舉行第十九次全國代表大會之際，新疆維吾爾自治區治理之政策將面臨兩種進退維谷的局面。其一是，若為了解決少數民族問題而特別禮遇少數民族，恐將招致漢族的反感，另一方面，若持續採取「反恐」政策，則少數民族和中共政權的距離益發漸行漸遠。其二為，在「一帶一路」的口號之下所推動的物流以及中國企業拓展中亞市場仍存在組織結構上的限制，使得中國企業進軍中亞以西的計畫更加窒礙難行。習近平的父親習仲勲對於1950年代前期的「西北」少數民族政策穩定發展具有長足貢獻，亦期望習近平所推行的少數民族政策能得到雙方共識。然而，探究如此的期待下之反面真意，並對照前述的兩種進退維谷局面，新疆維吾爾自治區的經濟仍持續長期低迷，中共政權表面上雖未宣揚「反恐」政策，實際上卻是持續實行，此舉無疑使得當地少數民族距離民生安定之路更形遙遠。 In the lead up to the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to be held in Autumn 2017, the CCP faces two dilemmas over China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. First, if the Party extends any preferential treatment to the Uyghur population to moderate ethnic tensions, it could face backlash from the ethnic Han population. One the other hand, if the CCP continues to pursue its “Anti-terrorism” initiatives, it will deepen existing cleavages between itself and Uyghurs. Second, China's promotion of trade and increased investments by Chinese companies in Central Asia under its “Belt and Road Initiative” are both substantially limited. In the first half of the 1950s, Xi Zhongxun, father of Xi Jinping, contributed to the moderation of the ethnic-minority policy in China's “northwest”. Many still expect a revival of such moderate ethnic minority policies under the younger President Xi. However, contrary to expectations, because of the above dilemmas, in combination with the continuing economic slump in Xinjiang, the CCP is likely to maintain its “Anti-terrorism” policy even though such policies are likely to only further alienate ethnic minority populations and perpetuate instability.

In the lead up to the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to be held in Autumn 2017, the CCP faces two dilemmas over China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. First, if the Party extends any preferential treatment to the Uyghur population to moderate ethnic tensions, it could face backlash from the ethnic Han population. One the other hand, if the CCP continues to pursue its “Anti-terrorism” initiatives, it will deepen existing cleavages between itself and Uyghurs. Second, China's promotion of trade and increased investments by Chinese companies in Central Asia under its “Belt and Road Initiative” are both substantially limited. In the first half of the 1950s, Xi Zhongxun, father of Xi Jinping, contributed to the moderation of the ethnic-minority policy in China's “northwest”. Many still expect a revival of such moderate ethnic minority policies under the younger President Xi. However, contrary to expectations, because of the above dilemmas, in combination with the continuing economic slump in Xinjiang, the CCP is likely to maintain its “Anti-terrorism” policy even though such policies are likely to only further alienate ethnic minority populations and perpetuate instability.