以依賴理論分析貿易保護政策及一帶一路倡議造成美、中區域經濟角色之互換

Analysis with Dependency Theory on the Regional Economic Role Exchange between the PRC and the U.S. Caused by Trade Protection and the One Belt One Road Initiative

川普上任後退出歐巴馬時期所加入的TPP，欲將經濟主軸以保護政策移轉回 美國本土。太平洋彼岸的中國大陸則透過一帶一路倡議連結歐、亞、非三大板塊， 從資金、基礎建設、交通等層面建立以中國大陸為主的「關係」鏈。美、中兩國 在自由貿易的政策上，產生了與先前領導人截然不同的政治思考，而這也造成兩 國在區域經濟上之角色互換。本文以依賴理論作為分析之根本，從核心國家與邊 緣國家之間關係，論述美、中與他國在經貿上所產生的連動性，另就相關政策與 外交層面進行討論，探討美、中貿易保護政策及帶路倡議所產生的區域經濟角色 互換，背後可能意圖及產生之影響進行分析。

Since Donald Trump took the office， he dropped the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) agreement which was once promoted by Barack Obama. President Trump attempts to shift the core of economic back to the U.S. with protection policy. With One Belt One Road， the PRC， the other side of the Pacific Ocean to the U.S.， has built a “Guanxi” linkage across Europe， Asia， and Africa on funds， infrastructures， and transportations. The trade policy from the present leaders of the PRC and the U.S. are poles apart from the ones of former leaders. This study takes Dependency Theory as the research method to analyze the co-movement of economic and trade from the relationship between central state and peripheral state. Moreover， the related policies and diplomacy between the PRC and the U.S. is going to be discussed. As the regional economic roles that the PRC and the U.S. play are exchanged due to the protection policy and One Belt One Road， the intentions of changing policy from both sides and its possible impacts are also discussed in the study.