台灣電子業之對外直接投資與出口：替代或互補？

The Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Export of Taiwan's Electronics Industry: Substitution or Complementarity ?

本文利用時間序列共積方法探討在 1991 至2010 年期間台灣電子業對外直接投資與出口兩者為互補或替代關係；亦即對外直接投資對出口的影響究竟為正面或是負面的效果。研究結果發現：當電子業對外直接投資增加時，對產業的出口具有促進的效果；亦即兩者存在互補的關係。此結果意謂著產業對外直接投資的活動是廠商為尋求低成本生產資源的行為，可視為提升廠商在國際的競爭力的一種策略手段。因此，政府電子產業的發展政策重點應在於如何提升本國產業在技術的競爭優勢，促使國內產業的技術水準能在國際市場的競爭中維持在最前端的地位；對外直接投資未必會導致出口績效的下降，此為研究結果所隱含的政策意義。

This study aims to explore the impact of outward FDI on export of Taiwan's electronics industry during 1991 to 2010, by using time series cointegration approach. The estimated result shows that outward FDI and export exist long-term, complementary relationship. This finding provides an evidence that outward FDI can prompt export performance of home country. The outward FDI can be recognized as a strategic measure for the electronics firms to enhance their international competitiveness. The policy authority should put their efforts on encouraging domestic firms to upgrade competitive advantage in technology through tax incentives or subsidies, instead of forbidding outward direct investment of domestic firms.