成長與績效間的交互關係──以中國產險業為例

A New Look at the Dynamic Interrelationship between Growth and Profitability in the Chinese Property Liability Insurance Industry

本文利用中國產險業自2000年至2006年的資料，探討其成長及績效間的關係。此研究之目的是希望了解在開發中國家如中國，是否吉布萊法則（Gilbrat’s Law）及利潤持續假說（Persistency of profit, POP）依然存在；而此研究也使用聯立方程式來解釋成長與績效間的關係。研究結果發現與多數已開發國家類似，小公司通常成長較快，違反吉布萊法則。另外，去年度的超額利潤在今年度仍持續存在。最後，本期與前期的利潤都將影響本期的公司成長，表示出考量本期變數之重要性。

We examine the nexus between growth and profitability for the Chinese property li-ability insurance industry during the period 2000–2006. This study adopts a simultaneous equation framework to understand the link between growth and profit since they are competing and interdependent variables for managers. The inverse relationship between size and growth, found across different subsamples and time periods, provides a challenge to the Law of Proportionate Effects. Profit persistence in the overall sample disappears with the exclusion of the state-owned monopoly of the People’s Insurance Company of China (PICC) and within the more competitive period 2003–2006 when growth persistence is found. Abnormal profits in the previous period prompt faster growth in the next period. Thus both contemporaneous and lagged profits are important and omitting these variables results in inconsistent parameter estimates to describe the relationships.