機車紅燈怠速熄火節能減碳效果評估

EVALUATING THE EFFECT OF MOTORCYCLE IDLING STOPS DURING RED TIME ON ENERGY SAVING AND CARBON REDUCTION

為因應全球暖化之重大議題，本研究特針對全國機動車輛持有數最多之機車，進行號誌化路口紅燈怠速熄火意願之分析。其主要目的，是在藉由影響怠速熄火意願因素之改變，評估可能帶來之節能減碳效果。依據存活分析法建構Cox等比例危險模式並經校估後發現，節能減碳熄火意願、油價上漲熄火意願、依從熄火意願、立法規範熄火傾向以及教育程度5個因素，對機車騎士紅燈怠速熄火之意願具有顯著的影響。另由單一路口評估結果得知，影響節能減碳效果最大者為油價上漲因素，最高可達到全年約90公噸之CO2減量；影響最小者則為教育程度，但亦可達到全年約1.6公噸之CO2減量。

To respond to the major issue of global warming, this study investigates the inclination to idling stops during red time at signalized intersection, focusing on the domestic most popular traffic mode-motorcycle. The main purpose is to evaluate the effect on energy saving and carbon reduction by changing the influence factors of willingness for idling stops. After calibrating the Cox proportional hazard model originated from the survival analysis, we found that a total of five factors: i.e. willingness to save energy and reduce carbon, oil price rise, willingness to stop idling, following other motorcyclists, an inclination to rule stop idling by legislation, and education, may significantly influence the motorcyclists’ willingness for idling stops. By evaluating a real signalized intersection, we further found that the oil price rise is the most effective factor on energy saving and carbon reduction, which may result in a CO2 reduction of as high as 90 tons a year. On the contrary, education plays the least effective role, it can also reduce 1.6 tons CO2 emission in a year.