汽機車能源消耗與污染排放管理策略之決策支援系統

A MANAGEMENT STRATEGY DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND EMISSIONS OF CARS AND MOTORCYCLES

本文建立一套汽機車管理策略決策支援系統，用以分析各種管理策略所能達到之全國及各縣市污染排放與能源消耗之減量效果。本系統包含模式庫、資料庫及使用者介面等三大元件。其中，模式庫 （本系統之核心） 包括全國型及區域型汽機車持有、車型車齡及使用等三類型個體選擇模式，共計24 個模式。資料庫則儲存各模式顯著變數之數值 （依縣市而異） 及能耗與排污係數值。使用者介面則利用Flash MX軟體撰擬而成。為驗證本系統之應用性，本文針對油價調漲50%及汽燃費改隨油徵收兩項策略，進行推估。結果顯示當油價上漲50%時，由於汽機車間之高度替代效果及機車之低油價彈性，導致總行駛里程、能源消耗及CO2 排放量僅下降約9.60 ~13.35%，而污染排放量更僅只下降5 ~ 6%。至於汽燃費改隨油徵收，亦僅使能耗與污染下降約1.27% ~ 2.95%。模式之參考。

This paper develops a decision support system for estimating total energyconsumption and emissions of cars and motorcycles under various managementstrategies. The system contains three key components: Modelbase, Database andUser interface. The Modelbase, the core of this system, entails a total of 24disaggregate choice models, including nationwide and regional ownership, typeand vintage choice and usage models of cars and motorcycles, while theDatabase contains the values of the significant variables for variouscities/counties and coefficients of energy consumption and emissions for varioustype and vintage categories of cars and motorcycles. The User interface isprogrammed by Flash MX. To validate the applicability of the system, twomanagement strategies are analyzed: 50% increase in gas price and mile-basedfuel costs. With a 50% increase in gas price, the total miles traveled, energyconsumption and CO2 emissions are curtailed only by approximately9.60~13.35% and emissions of NOx, CO and HC are curtailed at even lowerratios (about 5~6%) due to the high substitution effect between car usage andmotorcycle usage and low gas price elasticity of motorcycle usage. As to thestrategy of mile-based fuel costs, only 1.27% ~2.95% reductions in energyconsumption and emissions are achieved.