我國公路運輸溫室氣體排放變動因素分解分析

DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF GHGS EMISSION FROM ROAD TRANSPORTATION IN TAIWAN

本文應用分解分析之對數平均數迪氏指數法，探討1995-2005年影響臺灣公路運輸溫室氣體排放之關鍵因素，研究結果發現人均能源消費量及人口成長，是造成臺灣公路運輸溫室氣體每年排放量增加的二項關鍵因素。其中又以人均能源消費量為最主要的增量因素，且其所造成的排放增量效應有加速擴大的現象；人口成長雖是次要的排放增量因素，但隨著近年來臺灣人口出生率逐年降低，使得排放增量效應有減小的趨勢；其他組成因素對排放量的影響相對皆不顯著。前述研究結果顯示，降低公路運輸的人均能源消費量是減緩此部門溫室氣體排放的重要策略方向，而大眾運輸系統的普遍與便利化，則是抑制自用小客車及機車數量持續成長，有效降低人均能源消費量的重要關鍵。此外，積極發展新能源技術，逐漸以可再生能源或非碳能源取代傳統的化石能源，更是未來公路運輸進一步減少溫室

This study applies the LMDI decomposition analysis approach to identifythe key factors which affect greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission from Taiwan’sroad transportation sector during the period of 1995-2005. The results indicatethat per capita energy consumption for road transport and the populationgrowth are two primary factors causing its GHGs emission to increase. Populationgrowth is the secondary primary factor causing GHGs emission to increase,however, along with Taiwan’s decreasing birth rate in recent years the emissionincrease presents a reducing trend. It is noticeable that the emission increaseinducing by per capita energy consumption presents a growing trend due to continuouslyincreasing private transport in Taiwan. It implies that cutting down percapita energy consumption is an important way to reduce GHGs emission fromthis sector. The promotion of a public transport system, however, is a pivotstrategy to reduce the growth of private transport and per capita energy consumptionfor road transport as well. Besides, the development and application ofnon-fossil energy technologies is the essential way to further cut GHGs emissionfrom Taiwan’s road transportation sector.