大眾運輸導向發展之建成環境對捷運運量之影響──臺北捷運系統之實證研究

BUILT ENVIRONMENT IMPACTS OF TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT ON METRO RIDERSHIP：AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TAIPEI METRO SYSTEM

本研究目的在探討「大眾運輸導向發展 （transit-oriented development,TOD）」建成環境特性與捷運運量及運量時間分散程度間關係，以驗證TOD「增加大眾運具運量」與「提升運量時間分散程度」之效益。研究以民國93 年為資料基準時間，臺北市轄區內46 個捷運站區為樣本，使用線性迴歸模式校估與t檢定方法分析資料。實證結果發現：捷運全日運量受總樓地板面積的正向影響以及十字路口比例的負向影響，混合使用變數的影響則不顯著；捷運運量的時間分散程度受人行道長度的正向影響以及服務零售業面積比的負向影響，但密度變數之影響不顯著；非尖峰運量與全日運量分別受到相同因素與方向的影響效果；密度變數與都市設計變數對捷運運量之影響在平日與假日間有顯著差異，而混合使用變數在平日及假日均無顯著影響；各項TOD 特性對捷運運量時間分散程度之影響效果均會因平日或假日而不同；以及，密度及都市設計變數對捷運非尖峰運量之影響於平日及假日具顯著差異，但混合使用變數均無顯著影響。最後，本文進一步討論實證結果的可能應用，包括適合國內環境背景之TOD 發展策略方向以及特定站區的規劃分析，供都市發展規劃與管理單位參考。

This study aimed at confirming the benefits of transit-oriented development(TOD) on increasing transit ridership and dispersing transit ridership time distribution.To explore the influences of the built environment of TOD on the volume,as well as the time distribution, of metro ridership, this study used 46 metrostations in Taipei city as samples and developed cross-section analyses of theyear 2004 with regression models and t-tests. The observed results reached thefollowing conclusions: The daily ridership is positively affected by the area offloor space, negatively affected by the ratio of 4-way intersections and insignificantlyaffected by mixed land-use variables. The ridership time dispersion ispositively affected by the sidewalk length, negatively affected by the area of retailand service floor space, and insignificantly influenced by the density variables.The off-peak hour’s ridership presents a similar model of daily ridership;the density and design variable influence on daily ridership is significantly differentbetween weekdays and holidays. The effects of all TOD characters ondaily ridership entropy are significantly different between weekdays and holidays,and the influence of density and design variables on off-peak hour ridershipis significantly different between weekdays and holidays. Finally, two potentialapplications of the observed findings: TOD strategy directions correspondingto the domestic conditions, and planning analysis for a specific stationarea, are discussed for the reference of urban planning and management agencies.