兩岸三地整體船噸結構及其成長趨勢之分析

ANALYSES OF ENTIRE TONNAGE STRUCTURE AND ITS GROWTH TREND AMONG ROC, PRC AND HK

影響航運市場與運價波動因素眾多，根據經濟學供需原理，主要受船噸供給與貨源需求之直接影響。香港於1995 年加入世界貿易組織 （WTO），1997年回歸中國，中國與臺灣亦相繼於2001年底與2002年初加入世界貿易組織。臺灣、中國、香港之經濟將更融入全球經濟體系，兩岸經貿互動將有共同基礎，對兩岸航運發展勢必產生影響。過去文獻大部分僅探討特定國家船噸結構，並未與其他國家或全球進行比較，且未見有系統加以量化分析成長趨勢。本文利用聯合國貿易暨發展委員會 （UNCTAD） 最近十年統計，深入分析兩岸三地（臺灣、中國與香港） 之船噸結構，並採用灰色理論 （grey theory） 之灰預測GM（1,1）預測模式，進一步從供給面著手，比較兩岸三地與全球船噸之成長趨勢，並藉指數平滑法作精確度比較，又以區間預測結果進行討論。研究分析發現，於船噸結構方面，除了香港之外，臺灣和中國與全球一致，呈現國輪減少外輪增加趨勢。以載重噸而言，兩岸三地均呈現逐年增加趨勢；於成長趨勢方面，未來三年臺灣與香港船噸小幅成長，但中國將會呈現巨幅成長。研究結果可提供航運公司研擬營運策略，以及政府主管機關制定航運政策之參考。

According to the economic principles of supply and demand, there aremany factors that can influence shipping markets and fluctuations in transportationprices. They mainly result directly from the vessel supply tonnage and thecargo source demand. Hong Kong joined WTO in 1995, and returned to Chinain 1997. China and Taiwan also joined WTO in 2001 and 2002 respectively. Theeconomies of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong will be more integrated into theglobal economy system; hence, interactions of economies and business betweenChina and Taiwan will share the same basis. As a result, there must be some effectsupon the shipping industries in both China and Taiwan. Most of the earlierstudies only discussed certain countries’ tonnage structures; they neither performedcomparative analyses of the tonnage structures between different countriesor rest of the world nor provided any growth trends on the systematic quantificationanalysis. In this study, we used the latest ten-year statistics of UNCTADto thoroughly analyze tonnage structures of Taiwan, China, and HongKong. We adopted Grey GM (1, 1) Model of Grey theory to forecast and smoothexponentials to have accurate comparisons. In respect to the supply side, wecompared tonnage-structure growth trends of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kongwith the global growth trend, and discussed the interval results. The Resultsshowed that, in terms of the tonnage structure, except for Hong Kong, Taiwanand China are consistent with the global trend in the reduction of national flagvessels and the increase in foreign flag vessels. Furthermore, there is a rise indeadweight tonnage for Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong respectively. In thecoming three years, the tonnage growth of Taiwan and Hong Kong will slightlyincrease; on the other hand, the tonnage growth of China will increase aggressively.The findings of this study will assist shipping companies in shippingmanagement decision-making, and government agencies in formulating supportiveshipping policies.