英文摘要 |
According to the economic principles of supply and demand, there aremany factors that can influence shipping markets and fluctuations in transportationprices. They mainly result directly from the vessel supply tonnage and thecargo source demand. Hong Kong joined WTO in 1995, and returned to Chinain 1997. China and Taiwan also joined WTO in 2001 and 2002 respectively. Theeconomies of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong will be more integrated into theglobal economy system; hence, interactions of economies and business betweenChina and Taiwan will share the same basis. As a result, there must be some effectsupon the shipping industries in both China and Taiwan. Most of the earlierstudies only discussed certain countries’ tonnage structures; they neither performedcomparative analyses of the tonnage structures between different countriesor rest of the world nor provided any growth trends on the systematic quantificationanalysis. In this study, we used the latest ten-year statistics of UNCTADto thoroughly analyze tonnage structures of Taiwan, China, and HongKong. We adopted Grey GM (1, 1) Model of Grey theory to forecast and smoothexponentials to have accurate comparisons. In respect to the supply side, wecompared tonnage-structure growth trends of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kongwith the global growth trend, and discussed the interval results. The Resultsshowed that, in terms of the tonnage structure, except for Hong Kong, Taiwanand China are consistent with the global trend in the reduction of national flagvessels and the increase in foreign flag vessels. Furthermore, there is a rise indeadweight tonnage for Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong respectively. In thecoming three years, the tonnage growth of Taiwan and Hong Kong will slightlyincrease; on the other hand, the tonnage growth of China will increase aggressively.The findings of this study will assist shipping companies in shippingmanagement decision-making, and government agencies in formulating supportiveshipping policies. |