應用整合性選擇模式探討新運具的選擇行為

APPLYING INTEGRATED CHOICE MODEL TO ANALYZE NEW MODE’S INTRODUCTION

本研究目的在於探討新運具加入運輸市場後，對於旅運者選擇行為與整體運輸市場的影響。在結合選擇集合與市場定位的基礎下，重新構建整合性模式以同時考量新運具加入前、後的兩種選擇情境。整合性模式的效用函數區分為選擇集合及方案選擇兩階段，而於方案選擇效用函數中以因素結構的指定方式，考量個體偏好的異質性與方案的市場定位，並藉由聯合估計過程中的係數假設，分析新運具對於旅運選擇行為及市場結構的影響。實證研究是以城際大眾運輸的旅運選擇行為作為探討對象，並藉由敘述性偏好法設計客製化電腦問卷以提升選擇情境的真實性。實證結果顯示整合性模式的解釋能力顯著優於單獨考慮選擇集合或市場定位的選擇模式，而高鐵加入後，旅運者對於旅行時間的負面評價相對地提高，但個體異質性卻沒有顯著差異，而臺鐵自強號與立榮航空的乘客轉移至高鐵的機率最大。

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of new transportationmodes on passengers’ choice behavior and existing transportation market. Wecombined the two concepts of choice set and market positioning to construct anintegrated model considering two choice situations simultaneously. The utilityfunction of the integrated model was divided into two stages, choice set andalternative choice. The specification of factor structure was used to capture theindividual heterogeneity and marketing positioning of the alternatives in thesecond stage, and the effects of new modes on choice behavior and marketstructure were studied by hypothesizing coefficients’ specifications in the jointestimation process. A customized computer survey was designed to collect thestated preference data of intercity passengers. The results show that theintegrated model has better explanatory power than those models consideringchoice set or market positioning alone. The introduction of high speed railresults in increased negative passenger perceptions of travel time, but nosignificant difference in individual preference heterogeneity is observed.Tze-Chiang train and UNI airline are threatened mostly by high speed rail.