臺灣高速鐵路系統對地方發展之影響預測

FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF TAIWAN HIGH SPEED RAIL SYSTEM ON LOCAL DEVELOPMENT

臺灣高速鐵路系統即將於民國95年開始通車，屆時西部一日生活圈之目標將可達成，基於高速公路的經驗，預期高鐵系統對區域與地方發展將產生明顯的影響。由於國內高鐵系統伴隨著土地開發，而可區分為旅運服務與車站特定區兩部分，本研究目的在預測高鐵系統對地方層級的發展所可能帶來的影響。研究中使用聯立方程模型建構地方發展模型，以臺灣地區本島323個鄉鎮市之人口、產業、土地使用以及旅運資料作為模型校估樣本，根據校市發展土地對地區人口與產業產生正向影響，且後者之影響幅度大於前者；高鐵系統對地方發展的影響會隨著配套策略的不同而有所差異，改善車站聯外運輸系統以及促進車站特定區的開發，可以增加享受高鐵系統服務的鄉鎮市，並且增加高鐵系統對人口與產業正向影響的幅度。估結果推測與高鐵系統有關之改善交通可及性與增加都市發展土地對地方人口與產業的可能影響；並設計各種發展策略，模擬及比較高鐵系統在不同策略情境下對地方發展的影響差異。實證結果發現，改善交通可及性與增加都

Taiwan High Speed Rail (HSR) system will begin to operate in 2006, thedream of making the western Taiwan into a one-day living area will then cometrue. Based on the experiences of freeway’s influences, HSR might significantlyinfluence regional, as well as local development in Taiwan. Taiwan HSR systemincludes not only travel service, but also the station area development projects(SADP). Therefore, the impact of Taiwan HSR system is resulted from twosources: HSR and SADP. This study focused on the local development impact ofTaiwan HSR system. Simultaneous equation modeling is applied for analyzingthe cause-effect relationships of local development, which is calibrated by thesamples of 323 villages, towns or cities in Taiwan. The calibration data includespopulation, industry, land use and travel demand. Based on the calibratedmodel, the impact of improving accessibility, increasing urban developmentland, and different strategies related with HSR system were analyzed anddiscussed. We concluded as follows: Firstly, the improvement of accessibilitypositively influenced the local development of population and industry. Secondly,the increase of urban development land resulted in more positive influences onthe local development of population and industry than the accessibilityimprovement does. Finally, improving the transportation feeder systems of theHSR stations enhanced local development of population and industry.