海難事故肇因關鍵性分析技術之研究

An Approach of Identifying the Criticalities of the Casual Factors Involved in a Marine Casualty

協助主管機關精準地找出造成海難事故發生之關鍵肇因，一直是從事此項課題研究者未曾間斷的努力方向。本研究旨在提出一系統化的分析流程，用以探討海難事故中涉案肇因之關鍵性的問題。本文所研提之方法係應用「因果分析法（Why Because Analysis, WBA）」解析出涉案肇因以及其間的因果脈絡，並藉由「貝氏網路（Bayesian Network, BN）」之量化分析功能，進一步探討各涉案肇因之關鍵性及其排序。本研究透過一實際海事案例分析，說明本研究系統化分析流程的操作過程，並藉由質性及量化分析的結果，獲取明確之關鍵肇因及其排序結果，在本文中亦有所著墨，藉以驗證此分析法的實用性。希望能藉由本方法的運用，提供主管機關一項有利於探討事故關鍵肇因的分析工具，以有效地避免類似事故的再次發生。

Helping the authority to identify the critical casual factors of a marine casualty is always a challenge to the field researchers. This study aims to propose a systematic analytic procedure which applies Why Because Analysis (WBA) and Bayesian Network (BN) to identify the causal factors and their criticalities which were involved in a marine accident. To begin with, this procedure figures out the causal factors and the causality amongst them using Why Because Analysis (WBA), and then a Bayesian Network model is established according to the WBA results. Having the BN model of the accident, the criticalities and the ranking of those causal factors can be acquired via a sensitivity analysis process applied to the BN model. A marine casualty is utilized as the case study to demonstrate the analytic procedure as well as to illustrate the usability and applicability of the proposed method. It is expected that the proposed methodology can be a useful tool to help the decision makers to identify the critical causal factors, and hence the similar accidents can be prevented from happening again more effectively.