日澳同盟成泡影──澳洲政府是否進口蒼龍級潛艦之論辯（Aborting the Sub Deal: The Illusion of a Japan-Australia Alliance）

日豪同盟の幻影―豪州における「そうりゅう」型潜水艦輸入論争―

2016年4月澳洲政府放棄以往公認驍勇的日本蒼龍級潛艦而選定傳統動力潛艦——法國的梭魚級潛艦作為次世代潛艦。若是選定前者，極可能是希望透過進出口主要軍事裝備，突破以往僅因為是國際霸權美國的同盟國，而與日本有著緊密的軍政合作關係，並期望透過軍事裝備的進出口合作，作為日澳兩國間轉化關係的契機，進而加深日澳間軍事作戰關係的互助合作。於此，首當要務為，以與同盟的差異為考量，思考在何種條件下，能讓準同盟的機制發揮最大的功能，並進行基本的概念式、理論式的考察。其次，以此概念式、理論式的理解為基礎，以近年日澳兩國間為擴大與強化日澳安全保障及軍事互助合作關係而簽訂之協定與相關文書為文獻作分析。透過此分析，進而掌握日澳軍事關係受侷限的主因及特徵。並以所察知的侷限主因為分析核心，分析澳洲具代表性之一的安全保障、戰略理論領域的國際關係政策智庫「羅威研究所」提出的政策評論為核心展開的理論探討，考察澳洲政府否定日澳準同盟的戰略考量之背景與理論，以此研究結果展望日澳兩國間在不久的將來之安全保障與軍事合作關係的進程。

In April 2016, Australia decided to acquire a conventional variant of theFrench nuclear-powered Barracuda class as the Royal Australian Navy’snext-generation submarine, rather than the Japanese Soryu class. Choosingthe latter would probably have led to a metamorphosis of the Australia-Japanmilitary relationship from mere cooperation in military policy andadministrative issues via the respective bilateral alliances with the U.S., tocooperation and coordination in military operations through the trade of amajor weapon system. This study will first discuss “quasi-alliance”conceptually and theoretically, comparing and contrasting it with “alliance”,and focusing on conditions under which a “quasi-alliance” functions well.Second, based on this discussion, the analysis will center on a series of therecent related bilateral agreements and other diplomatic documents tocomprehend major features of the widening and deepening of the bilateralcooperative security and defense relationship. This will help in understandingthe major factors that limit the evolutionary changes in the bilateralrelationship. Third, this study will investigate a series of policy essayspublished by the Lowy Institute for International Policy, a major Australianthink in the field, aiming to grasp the strategic rationale for why Australia hasrejected the formation of a quasi-alliance with Japan. Last, the work willsuggest a rule-of-thumb for prospective bilateral security and militaryrelations in the near future.