極端天氣事件對預期遊客量變化影響之研究

The Effect of Extreme Weather Events on the Tourist Population

氣候變遷造成全球極端天氣事件的發生頻率與影響強度皆增加，對觀光產業亦有極大的衝擊與影響，現有的文獻少有深入探討極端天氣事件與遊客量變化的關係，加上臺灣處於氣候影響的敏感地區，因此討論臺灣地區極端天氣事件與遊客量的關係顯得十分重要。研究目的以臺灣為例，探討極端天氣事件與遊客量變化之間的關係，以作為觀光產業因應極端氣候永續發展之探究基礎。研究方法運用單因子變異數分析，從過去1990-2010年中華民國交通部觀光局提供的遊客數量資料，以及臺灣內政部消防署的消防統計年報提供的極端天氣事件災害情形，觀察其變化並進一步進行統計分析。研究結果發現春季發生洪水、夏季發生乾旱以及冬季發生寒流，實際遊客數量皆低於預期遊客數量，尤其在冬季有顯著性差異。

The increasing frequency and magnitude of global extreme weather events caused by climate change have a significant influence on the tourism industry. There are few researches deeply discussing about the relationship between extreme weather and the changes of tourist flow. It is apparently important to discuss the extreme weather and the change of tourist flow in the region of Taiwan, where it is a sensitive area to climate impact. The purpose of this study is to discuss the relationship between extreme weather events and the change of tourist flow in Taiwan. And the result of study could be used as a fundamental of sustainable development in response to extreme weather. The study conducted one way ANOVA. And the data in this study contains the number of tourists offered by R.O.C. Tourism Bureau and the damaged of extreme weather events reported in The Fire Statistical Annual of Taiwan published by National Fire Agency, Ministry of the Interior during 1990-2010. The result indicated that the actual tourist population was lower than expected tourist populaion when flooding occurred in spring, draught occurred in summer, or cold air incursion occurred in winter.