擴大政府公共投資支出之經濟成長方案是否依然有效？我國新十大建設計畫的可計算一般均衡分析

DOES THE ECONOMIC GROWTH STRATEGY OF INCREASED GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT SPENDING STILLWORK? A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF TAIWAN’S TEN NEWCONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

本研究建立臺灣可計算一般均衡模型（computable general equilibrium， CGE， model）來評估政府執行5年5，000億新十大建設方案對臺灣經濟之帶動效果， 在模型中分別運用凱因斯封閉法與新古典封閉法來模擬計畫執行的短期衝擊與長期影響。研究結果顯示， 執行新十大建設方案短期內雖會帶動臺灣經濟成長， 但效果並不如預期顯著， 而其長期經濟影響則更小， 並會產生物價水準上漲的負面效應。另以乘數效果觀之， 執行該方案的投資與所得乘數皆不大。本研究同時印證了政府財政政策之效果係與一國經濟發展階段與公共投資支出內容密切相關， 而臺灣在經歷30多年的快速經濟成長之後， 應已趨近發展成熟的穩定狀態均衡（steady-state equilibrium）， 因此擴大政府公共投資支出的效益不高， 其促進經濟成長的效果已經有限。

In this research, we developed a Taiwan computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the economic stimulation effects of the governmentled Ten New Construction Projects (TNCP) on the Taiwan economy. Both shortrun and long-run policy simulations were conducted in the model using Keynesian and neoclassical closures. Our research findings suggest that TNCP helps Taiwan’s economic growth in the short run. Its effect, however, is not as large as expected. In the long run, TNCP contributes to small economic growth effects and leads to a significant increase in price levels. The investment multiplier and income multiplier effects of TNCP are both insignificant in our policy simulations. This research supports the proposition that the effectiveness of government fiscal policies depends on the stage of economic development of a state and the composition of government investment spending. After more than 30 years of fast economic development, Taiwan has now converged gradually to the steady-state equilibrium of a mature economy. The benefits of increased government investment spending, therefore, become small and its effects to stimulate the economic growth are rather limited.