人口年齡結構、所得分配與產業結構轉型對臺灣民間消費與總體產出之影響

THE IMPACT AND EVALUATION FOR THE AGE STRUCTURE, INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ON TAIWAN’S CONSUMPTION AND OUTPUT

為明瞭臺灣近期消費成長動能趨緩的原因與可能影響， 本研究以家計收支調查資料， 配合分量迴歸模型之估計， 以Taylor （2007） 形成分量迴歸預測模型，並參考行政院經濟建設委員會人口推計資料。亦即假設2015年時臺灣人口年齡結構將趨向少子化以及老齡化； 而所得分配趨向M 型； 並且產業結構持續轉變設計相關模擬情境， 帶入產業關聯模型。推估上述因素對最終消費之影響。其中， 以產業結構變動因素之影響最大， 其將使最終需求金額增加12，057 百萬元。至於少子化與老齡化的人口年齡結構變動趨勢因素，將使最終需求減少10，870 百萬元。趨向M 型社會的所得分配改變， 將使最終需求金額減少3，170 百萬元。若同時考量少子化與老齡化之人口年齡趨勢、M 型所得分配趨勢、與產業結構改變等因素對臺灣消費之影響， 由於此三個模擬情境彼此間並非獨立， 彼此間具有相互影響作用， 其將使最終需求的金額增加4，351 百萬元， 且三個影響因素中， 將由產業結構變動主導整體結果。

In order to evaluate and analysis the impact of the changes of the consumption structure in Taiwan, we use the household survey data and employed quintile regression model (QR model), consumer conversion matrix and inputoutput tables, aswell as referred some predicted figures proposed by CEPD(Council for Economic andDevelopment) to set up the scenarios. According to the empirical results, we find the proxy variables of age structure, income distribution and, industrial structure upgrade etc. have significant influences on Taiwan’s private consumption. And based on (I-A)−1 matrix against the baseline, the largest of the linkage effects accounting for the changes in final demand is the industrial transition,whichmakes industrial output increase NT$27,261million. Low birth rate and population’s aging causes the output to decline NT$27,601 million. TheM-shape income distribution causes the output to fallNT$7,535million. If we consider the simultaneous effect, i.e. total the three factors, final demand increases NT$4,351 million, and output totals around NT$6,307 million, with a change rate of 0.03%.