WTO新回合農業談判「七月套案」之市場進入議題對臺灣經濟之影響

THE IMPACT OF THE 2004WTO JULY PACKAGE ON TAIWAN’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, FOCUSING ON AGRICULTURALMARKET ACCESS

我國於2002年成為WTO 會員國， 面對2004 年WTO 新回合「七月套案」農業談判之市場進入議題，整體經濟、國民福利與農業發展所可能受到之衝擊， 成為關切焦點， 本文對此進行量化研究， 以屬多國可計算一般均衡分析的GTAP模型，模擬WTO各會員國同時採行農產品市場自由化措施時， 對我國總體面、個體面與福利面之經濟效果。模擬結果發現，我國實質國內生產毛額（GDP） 微幅增加， 但整體國民福利卻因貿易條件惡化而下降。農業部門內出現產業結構重整。其中，其他食品與畜產品上下游產業所受衝擊最大。

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of the July Package, the conclusion of the new WTO negotiations wrapped up in July 2004, on Taiwan’s economic development. We focus, in particular, on the issue of agriculturalmarket access. Amultiregional, multi-sector CGE model—Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)—is used to do the quantitative analysis on the aspects ofmacro- andmicro-economy, aswell as national welfare. The empirical results show that Taiwan’s real GDP will slightly increase, though the national welfare decreases due to the deterioration of the terms of trade. There will be significant restructuring in the agricultural sector, within which the “other food products” and the “animal andmeat products” are themost affected areas.