臺灣SARS疫情經濟影響的事後分析

EX POST ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SARS ON TAIWAN

相較於前人研究（例如吳榮義等， 2003； 江豐富等， 2003； 周濟等， 2003）採用計量模型搭配投入產出模型的「事前」分析，本研究採用臺灣可計算一般均衡動態模型（Taiwan computable general equilibrium model-dynamic， 簡稱TAIGEM-D） 的歷史模擬（historical simulation） 與解析模擬（decomposition simulation）的兩項機制，針對2003年3月於臺灣爆發的SARS疫情，進行「事後」的經濟影響分析， 探討SARS 疫情對於臺灣的總體經濟與個體產業的衝擊， 並就「事後」解析的結果與「事前」預估模擬結果進行比較， 冀藉此彌補傳統的「事前」評估之不足。研究結果顯示， 受SARS 疫情影響的國內產業不單純是以服務業為主，在產業關聯效果的連帶影響下，其他產業亦受到衝擊影響。除少數因SARS疫情導致需求增加而受益的產業（例如其他紡織品、醫療藥品、清潔用品及化嫺品、醫療保健服務、精密器械等）外，幾乎所有的產業皆因SARS疫情的影響，導致產業產出減少以及失業人口增加。從總體經濟面來看， SARS 疫情對臺灣總體經濟面實質GDP 的影響幅度大約介於-0.84% 至-1.61%之間，較前人的「事前」評估要來得嚴重。

The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 resulted in significant losses to the tourism and tourism-related industries in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. Through inter-industry feedback effects, the economic impacts of SARS not only affect the tourism-related services industries, but also other industries and the whole economy. There have been a number of ex ante studies that have quantified the potential impacts of SARS on Taiwan’s economy (e.g., Chou et al. 2003, Wu et al. 2003). This article provides an ex post economy-wide assessment of the SARS impacts on Taiwan. Themodel used is a dynamic, computable general equilibrium(CGE)model of the Taiwan’s economy (TAIGEM-D),which is derived fromthe AustralianORANImodel and the MONASHmodel. To provide an ex post evaluation, we use historical closure and decomposition closure originally from MONASH innovations. Comparisons with other ex ante SARS impact assessments are also provided. Results indicate that only a fewindustries likemedicines, medical health services and precision instruments benefited fromSARS, while almost all other industries in Taiwan suffered with output losses as well as employment and welfare reductions. Loss to gross domestic product (GDP) of Taiwan is estimated to be between 0.84 and 1.61 percent which is much bigger than that predicted by the previous ex ante studies.