營業稅調整對總體經濟之可能衝擊

THE IMPACTS OF VAT ADJUSTMENTS ON TAIWAN ECONOMY

本文的主要目的在於探討營業稅稅率調整對我國經濟成長、物價， 以及失業率· · · 等重要總體變數之衝擊效果。文中延用吳中書與許嘉棟（1994）、吳中書（1995a）、Wu （1995） 及Wu et al. （1996） 以總需求為主的架構， 建立一個涵蓋財政收支的總體經濟計量模型， 模擬分析不同營業稅稅率並搭配不同政府支出型態對總體經濟的影響效果。模擬結果顯示， 營業稅調整對民間消費、民間投資， 以及實質國內生產毛額的影響， 會依支出特性的不同而存在差異性。整體而言， 政府將營業稅稅率調高所獲得的新增稅收用於平衡財政收支的情況，對經濟體系所產生的正面效益最大。

Themain purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of adjusting value-added tax (VAT) on Taiwan’s economy. We followthe framework adopted byWu andHsu (1994), Wu (1995a),Wu (1995) andWu et al. (1996), to construct amacro-econometrics model containing the government budget, and estimate the impacts of VAT adjustments on the macro-economy. According to the results of various simulations, with distinct types of government expenditures, the adjustment patterns ofmacro variables such as private consumption, private investment, and gross domestic product (GDP) differs. In sum, if the government reduces its debts with the additional taxes resulting fromthe increased VAT rates, the positive benefits to our economy aremost significant.