臺灣樂透彩券的選號策略之實證研究

Number Selection Strategy of Lottery Players: An Empirical Study of the Taiwan Lottery

本文主要研究臺灣樂透彩券參與購買者選號策略之轉變。首先， 從銷售量的時間序列資料來尋找結構轉變點， 並利用Scoggins （1995） 所設定的累積頭彩機率密度函數進行實證資料的估計。結果發現初期彩券購買者偏好採用自覺性的選號策略，隨之轉變為隨機選號的購券方式。實證結果並顯示自覺性選號策略下的需求彈性顯著大於隨機選號下的需求彈性， 而且兩種選號策略下的需求彈性均大於1。

This paper focuses on the change in the selection behavior of lottery players in Taiwan. First, we test the structural change in the time series of the sales to find the break point of the selection strategy. By estimating a generalized rollover probability function set by Scoggins (1995),we indicate that the lottery players initially pick numbers byway of conscious selection and later change their behavior to random selection. The results also show the demand elasticity under conscious selection is significantly larger than that under randomselection, and both are larger than 1.